643
FXUS01 KWBC 231928
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
327 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
VALID 00Z FRI JUL 24 2026 - 00Z SUN JUL 26 2026
...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING,
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, AND COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS...
...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...
...MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST, GREAT
BASIN AND PARTS OF THE PLAINS...
...HAZARDOUS HEAT CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER;
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY...
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS ON A WESTWARD PATH TO TEXAS ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AND BRINGING SHOWERS ALONG THE GULF COAST NEAR
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS AND GUSTY WINDS. AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST
HAVE ISSUES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THEIR COASTAL WATERS NEAR
LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY, DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM T.S. BERTHA COMBINED WITH
EMBEDDED UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND COASTAL FLOODING ALONG
SOUTHERN TEXAS.
A SLOW MOVING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY,
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC TODAY BEFORE STALLING BY FRIDAY. WARM,
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD FROM BERTHA WILL POOL ALONG
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COMBINATION OF UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SUFFICIENT
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO HIGH RAIN RATES AND REPEATED ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION, WHICH CAN BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, THE CAROLINAS,
AND THE SOUTHEAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO EXTEND INTO
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO SUPPORT
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THE CONVECTION, WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING AND A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ON FRIDAY, THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT
CONTINUES AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES, LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE PERSISTENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
THANKS TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH TERRAIN-INDUCED LIFT, WILL AID IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, WHICH WILL BRING A RISK FOR SCATTERED
FLASH FLOODING. ON FRIDAY, THE RISK EXPANDS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, LEADING TO ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, OVER INTO THE
NORTHERN TIER, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO PARTS OF MINNESOTA ON
FRIDAY.
THE MULTI-DAY HEATWAVE WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES OF MID-90S TO MID-100S CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 105-115 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS. RECORD
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE WILL PROVIDE
LITTLE RELIEF FROM TH HEAT OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD MAJOR TO LOCALLY
EXTREME HEATRISK (LEVELS 3 AND 4/4) IS EXPECTED WHICH INDICATES A
LEVEL OF HEAT DANGEROUS TO ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR
HYDRATION. CONTINUE TO MONITOR WPC'S KEY MESSAGES FOR MORE DETAILS
AND UPDATES ON THE HEAT. OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA, BRINGING
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, THE
MIDWEST TO MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WILL SEE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S THROUGH FRIDAY.
OUDIT/CAMPBELL
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page