403
FXUS06 KWBC 241910
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI JULY 24 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 30 - AUG 03, 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS PREDICT A STRONG ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
BAFFIN BAY, CONSISTENT WITH THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION (NAO). THIS ANOMALOUS HIGH LATITUDE FEATURE SUPPORTS ANOMALOUS
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC. UPSTREAM OF THIS
TROUGH, EXPANSIVE ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS), PEAKING IN INTENSITY BETWEEN JULY 30 AND
AUGUST 1. ANOMALOUS TROUGHING OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS TOUGH WEAKENS, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA FROM WEST TO EAST. GENERALLY
NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
EXPANSIVE RIDGING SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH (80 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN, NEAR THE PREDICTED
MEAN RIDGE AXIS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS, DUE TO PREDICTED TROUGHING. TELECONNECTIONS
FROM THE STRONG RIDGE OVER BAFFIN BAY LIMITS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RELATIVELY COOLER AIRMASS, LEADING TO A TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GULF COAST
REGIONS. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA DUE
TO PREDICTED RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. HOWEVER, BELOW NORMAL SSTS TILT THE ODDS
TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. CONVERSELY,
MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL SSTS SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS HAWAII.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, NEAR AND AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. ELEVATED
CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA, DUE TO A PREDICTED
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM NEAR THE TAIL END OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, LEADING TO
MODESTLY ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THERE. DRIER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
THE WESTERN GULF COAST, NEAR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AN AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST,
CONSISTENT WITH AN ENHANCED MONSOONAL SIGNAL. A TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE PREDICTED ACROSS THE WEST. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA,
CONSISTENT WITH PREDICTED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES. A TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND, UNDER ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SOUTHEAST ALASKA ALSO TILTS WET, AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING TROUGH OFFSHORE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII
DUE TO POTENTIAL TROPICAL ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD, AS FAUSTO
(OR ITS REMNANTS) ENTER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE GREATEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL
MAY TIME OFF BEFORE THE START OF THIS PERIOD, SO ENHANCED ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE KEPT MODEST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE MID-LEVEL FEATURES EARLY, OFFSET BY
A POTENTIAL PATTERN TRANSITION LATE.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 01 - 07 2026
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS ENSEMBLE
SPREAD INCREASES. ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST WELL
INTO THE PERIOD ACROSS THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA, INCLUDING ALASKA,
SUGGESTING A CONTINUATION OF A NEGATIVE NAO. AFTER THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS, THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER. THE DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WOULD GENERALLY BE CONSISTENT WITH A NEGATIVE NAO
SIGNATURE. MEANWHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE
PERIOD. BY THE START OF THE PERIOD, ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA AS A TROUGH TO ITS
SOUTH WEAKENS. THESE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR
THE DURATION OF WEEK-2. NEAR NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
ACROSS HAWAII.
ANOMALOUS RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
(GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, WHERE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO BE MOST
PERSISTENT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, EASTERN AREAS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS,
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING TROUGH. AS THIS TROUGH
WEAKENS AND RETROGRADES, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
INDICATED AHEAD OF IT, ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION, AS THE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH WEAKENS.
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED ACROSS MOST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA DUE TO PERSISTENT ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. HOWEVER, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, WHERE SSTS ARE CURRENTLY
BELOW NORMAL. CONVERSELY, SSTS SURROUNDING HAWAII ARE CURRENTLY MODESTLY ABOVE
NORMAL, SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THERE.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND COASTAL
MID-ATLANTIC, AHEAD OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS MORE LIKELY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS, ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SURROUNDING REGIONS UNDERNEATH PREDICTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A TILT TOWARD
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NORTHWARD
TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING FRONTAL ACTIVITY.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MODESTLY FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS,
UNDERNEATH PREDICTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FARTHER TO THE NORTH, ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS,
DUE TO POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN,
CONSISTENT WITH THE MEAN POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE PREDICTED OVER THE WEST. THE
ORIENTATION OF THIS PRECIPITATION SIGNATURE IS SUGGESTIVE OF A POTENTIAL GULF
SURGE, WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FARTHER TO THE NORTH, DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS UNDER ANOMALOUS RIDGING. MOST OF SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA ALSO TILTS DRY, ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT ABOVE
NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. A TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE
ANOMALOUS HIGH LATITUDE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE BAFFIN BAY. CALIBRATED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MODEST TILT
TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENTIAL PATTERN TRANSITION.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20100805 - 20120725 - 20210708 - 20240804 - 20010704
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240805 - 20120724 - 20100727 - 20210707 - 20100806
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 30 - AUG 03, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A B IOWA N B MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N B
INDIANA N B OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 01 - 07 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page