493
FXUS06 KWBC 251902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SAT JULY 25 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 31 - AUG 04, 2026
WHILE THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE
ON THE AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD, MODELS PREDICT VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD THAT
LEAD TO GREATER UNCERTAINTY. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON 0Z ECMWF,
GEFS, AND CANADIAN MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN GREATER DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL. MODELS PREDICT AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER GREENLAND, CONSISTENT WITH THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION (NAO). A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
(CONUS) IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NEGATIVE NAO AND HIGH-LATITUDE RIDGE. THIS
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS QUICKLY AMPLIFIES AND DEAMPLIFIES DURING THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD. A SECOND HIGH-LATITUDE RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE PREDICTED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. ALL MODELS PREDICT A RIDGE AND POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. MODELS PREDICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC NEAR THE WEST COAST OF CANADA AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
THAT QUICKLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CANADA AND PARTIALLY INTO THE NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS IN SOME SOLUTIONS. A RIDGE
AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD RETROGRESS WESTWARD AND DEAMPLIFY WITH TIME.
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AROUND
DAY 10 IN ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, MOST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA EXCLUDING THE WEST COAST, AND NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH NEARBY NEGATIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES.
EXPANSIVE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS SUPPORTS LIKELY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CONUS, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING
80 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
PARTS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON AHEAD OF TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FROM GEORGIA NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES, UNDER A PREDICTED
WEAK TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH
MOST MODEL FORECASTS AND POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE
VICINITY.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL FORECASTS. UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE, BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND,
CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM
THE ECMWF AND GEFS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON, AHEAD OF TROUGHING OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. UNDER THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE REMAINING NORTHWESTERN CONUS,
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SUPPORTS SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER. ANOMALY FORECASTS FROM THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST, UNDER THE PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND, CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR ALL OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH RAW MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL FORECASTS OF THE LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL PATTERN, OFFSET
BY A TRANSITION IN THE PATTERN LATER IN THE PERIOD AND WEAKER SIGNALS IN
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 02 - 08 2026
HIGH-LATITUDE RIDGES AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND GREENLAND IN THE WEEK-2 ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FROM
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN MODELS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
THE ALEUTIANS DEAMPLIFY IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD BUT REMAIN IN THE MANUAL BLEND
FOR THE WEEK-2 MEAN. FOLLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA, A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC TO THE SOUTH OF MAINLAND ALASKA EARLY IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD.
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AMPLIFY NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF WEEK 2 IN THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECASTS, WHILE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES OVER CANADA ALONG THE BORDER,
WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN CENTRAL
CONUS IN SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND RIDGING
PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS IN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS IN
WEEK 2, CONSISTENT WITH NEGATIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE
REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND MOST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA, EXCLUDING THE WEST COAST, UNDER PREDICTED POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES. WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF A RIDGE OVER THE WEST, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
MONTANA, AND SOUTH DAKOTA, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND
CALIBRATED MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS IN WEEK 2. DEVELOPING POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS SUPPORT ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT OVER MOST OF THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, WITH POSITIVE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE VICINITY.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS AND PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION. PRECIPITATION
SIGNALS ARE WEAK OR INCONSISTENT AMONG MODELS FOR REMAINING AREAS OF ALASKA,
FAVORING NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. RETROGRESSION OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS SUPPORTS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE
RIDGE OVER THE WEST SUPPORTS INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWEST. WEAK PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTEND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, FROM TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST, AND
NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD, CONSISTENT WITH CONSOLIDATION
PRECIPITATION ANOMALY FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED
ACROSS HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A TRANSITIONING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN, AND INCREASING DIFFERENCES AMONG
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20010705 - 20100805 - 20250722 - 20130719 - 20210708
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20120725 - 20100805 - 20210708 - 20240804 - 20100727
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 31 - AUG 04, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 02 - 08 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA N B WYOMING A B
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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