334
FXUS01 KWBC 251957
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
356 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
VALID 00Z SUN JUL 26 2026 - 00Z TUE JUL 28 2026
...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND...
...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC NEAR A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
...ACTIVE MONSOONAL MOISTURE FUELS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
ROCKIES...
...HAZARDOUS HEAT CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN U.S. AND BUILDS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH BE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
U.S. INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAZARDOUS HEAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND WILL BE STEADILY BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEATRISK WITH
ISOLATED EXTREME HEATRISK AREAS FROM THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS
EASTWARD TO TH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST.
DAILY MAXIMUMS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN STATES AND WITH ISOLATED AREAS IN THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST SEEING 115-120 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY CAN RAISE HEAT INDICES TO 105 TO 115
DEGREES, WHICH WILL POSE HEALTH RISK CONCERNS TO ANYONE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT
BASIN REGIONS. DIURNAL HEATING AND PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY WILL HELP
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCARS AND SLOT CANYONS WHERE RAPID RUNOFF AND
FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR. ADDITIONALLY, STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF ARIZONA WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS FOR SATURDAY.
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DRIVING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EASTWARDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY, COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY, WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH A CHANCE
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
INCREASES ON SUNDAY, AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES SHIFT
EASTWARD AND MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES, REINFORCING ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THESE STORM MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, DAMAGING
WIND GUST, AND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WHERE
ANTECEDENT SOILS ARE SATURATED. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
EASTWARD BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC.
A SECONDARY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL DRAPE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTH MID-ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE, SLOW
STORM MOTIONS, AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES, A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAVE BEEN PLACED FOR SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND THE
SOUTHEAST, WHILE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) INCLUDES PORTIONS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CAMPBELL/OUDIT
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