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FXUS06 KWBC 261902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN JULY 26 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 01 - 05 2026
WHILE THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE
ON THE AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD, MODELS PREDICT VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD THAT
LEAD TO GREATER UNCERTAINTY. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON 0Z ECMWF,
GEFS, AND CANADIAN MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN GREATER DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL. MODELS PREDICT AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER GREENLAND, CONSISTENT WITH THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION (NAO). A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
(CONUS) QUICKLY DEAMPLIFIES DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AS POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES DEVELOP LATER IN THE PERIOD IN ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS. A SECOND
HIGH-LATITUDE RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA. ALL MODELS PREDICT A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
MODELS PREDICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC NEAR THE WEST
COAST OF CANADA AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THAT QUICKLY
PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA AND PARTIALLY INTO THE
NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS, WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC TO THE SOUTH OF MAINLAND ALASKA. A RIDGE AND POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD DEAMPLIFY AND RETROGRESS WESTWARD, BEFORE AMPLIFYING NEAR
THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS, MOST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA EXCLUDING THE SOUTHWEST COAST, AND NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH NEARBY NEGATIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES.
EXPANSIVE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS SUPPORTS LIKELY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CONUS, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING
80 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR PARTS OF WASHINGTON, OREGON, AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AHEAD OF
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM GEORGIA
NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, UNDER A PREDICTED WEAK TROUGH. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL FORECASTS
AND POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE VICINITY.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL FORECASTS. UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE, BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA. NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND AND
SOUTH COAST, WHERE PRECIPITATION TOOLS ARE INCONSISTENT. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON, AHEAD OF TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.
UNDER THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE REMAINING NORTHWESTERN CONUS, SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SUPPORTS ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA,
ARIZONA, AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. ANOMALY FORECASTS FROM THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE GULF COAST AND
EASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR ALL OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT
WITH RAW MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL FORECASTS OF THE MEAN LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL PATTERN,
OFFSET BY A VARIABLE PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD AND WEAK SIGNALS IN
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 03 - 09 2026
HIGH-LATITUDE RIDGES AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND GREENLAND IN THE WEEK-2 ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FROM
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN MODELS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
THE ALEUTIANS DEAMPLIFY LATER IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IN THE GEFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS BUT REMAIN IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE MANUAL BLEND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA, WITH NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS, BEFORE
DEAMPLFYING LATER IN WEEK 2. A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
LATER IN THE PERIOD. AS A RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS,
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AMPLIFY NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF WEEK 2 IN THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECASTS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND RIDGING PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BEFORE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE ECWMF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS IN
WEEK 2, CONSISTENT WITH NEGATIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE
REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR NORTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AND MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, EXCLUDING THE SOUTHWEST COAST, UNDER
PREDICTED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. UNDER EXPANSIVE RIDGING AND
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF
WASHINGTON, MONTANA, AND SOUTH DAKOTA, INFLUENCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, INCREASING POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AND
CALIBRATED MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS IN WEEK 2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, WITH
POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE VICINITY.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND PARTS
OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION.
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS ARE WEAK OR INCONSISTENT AMONG MODELS FOR REMAINING AREAS
OF MAINLAND ALASKA, FAVORING NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF
PREDICTED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DURING THE PERIOD. RETROGRESSION OF A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SUPPORTS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST WITH
PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF ARIZONA. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES, SOUTH
FLORIDA, AND PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH
PRECIPITATION ANOMALY FORECASTS FROM THE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH THE
CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A CHANGING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN, AND DIFFERENCES AMONG PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20010706 - 20030709 - 20250723 - 20160721 - 20220804
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20010705 - 20030709 - 20250722 - 19980730 - 20220808
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 01 - 05 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 03 - 09 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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