715
FXUS01 KWBC 270630
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
VALID 12Z MON JUL 27 2026 - 12Z WED JUL 29 2026
...DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN U.S. INTO NEXT WEEK...
...RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL SPREAD
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...
...ACTIVE MONSOONAL MOISTURE FUELS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION, ROCKIES, AND HIGH PLAINS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS HEAT FROM THE PLAINS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S WITH ISOLATED AREAS WITHIN
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SEEING UP TO 115-120. ADDITIONALLY, RECORD
BREAKING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY WITHIN THE 70S. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 105-115 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST WILL
SEE MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK LEVELS ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY, THE
MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK LEVELS BECOMES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES, SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE SOUTHEAST. AREAS NORTHWARD WILL
SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS A EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE BRINGS
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE MIDWEST.
ACROSS EASTERN U.S., A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL SAG SOUTHEASTWARD, WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE NORTHEAST BY LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY. THE RICH GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY, THE STRENGTHENING
LOW, AND THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
THAT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES. THERE IS A ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR TODAY. THESE CLUSTERED STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, AND NORTHEAST.
ON TUESDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES, WHILE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM MOIST ENVIRONMENT, LEADING TO A
REINFORCEMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. WITH THE CHANCE FOR TRAINING TO DEVELOP, SLOW STORM
MOTION, AND INSTABILITY, A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO
NEW ENGLAND, WHILE A BROAD MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) ENCOMPASSES
MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NORTH
CAROLINA AND PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS THAT MAY ALSO PRODUCE
ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL U.S., AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN
PERSIST, AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND PORTIONS OF
THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ESPECIALLY OVER BURNS SCARS, SLOT
CANYONS, URBAN AREAS, AND STEEP TERRAIN. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH/CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS FOR TODAY. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
FURTHERMORE, REPEATED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF
COAST/EAST FLORIDA MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ON MONDAY
AS RAINFALL TOTALS MAY REACH UP TO 6".
OUDIT
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