876  
FOUS30 KWBC 280049  
QPFERD  
 
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
849 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026  
 
DAY 1  
VALID 01Z TUE JUL 28 2026 - 12Z TUE JUL 28 2026  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EFFECT FOR PARTS  
OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND ILLINOIS...  
   
..GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
 
 
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITHIN A  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EAST  
COAST WILL DRIVE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN CHANCES. OF  
MOST CONCERN IS AN AREA OF WEST-NORTHWEST FLANKING STORMS THAT  
CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT TRAINING/BACK-BUILDING POTENTIAL IN PARTS OF  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IL/IN THIS EVENING. HIGH LEVELS OF MLCAPE  
(4000-5000 J/KG) CONTINUE TO BE ESTIMATED IN THE INFLOW SECTOR  
ACROSS SOUTHERN IA, IL AND INTO SOUTHERN IN, WHICH WILL HELP STORMS  
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AFTER SUNSET. 23Z EXPERIMENTAL WOFS DEPICTS  
40-70% CHNACES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ABOVE 2 INCHES  
WITHIN THE SLGT RISK AREA AND ALONG THE IL-IN BORDER. HOWEVER, THE  
MID- LEVEL FLOW DOES BEGIN TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR BACK-  
BUILDING AFTER ABOUT 03Z AND BETTER FORCING QUICKLY SHIFTS EASTWARD  
DUE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THUS, THE  
SCATTERED FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER IL/IN REMAINS, BUT IS SHORT-  
LIVED.  
 
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION, THE  
LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A POTENT JET STREAK ROUNDING THE NORTHWEST  
PERIPHERY OF THE ANCHORED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS  
WILL SPAWN OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MOST STORMS SHOULD  
BE PROGRESSIVE WITHIN THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF  
TRAINING MAY LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE GREATEST  
POTENTIAL FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE OVER THE EASTERN L.P. OF MI AND  
POSSIBLY THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO FAR WESTERN NY STATE DEPENDING  
ON UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT. CAMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY UNRELIABLE TODAY,  
BUT THE LATEST 23Z HRRR SEEMS TO CAPTURE CURRENT RADAR  
REPRESENTATION WELL AND HAS A REALISTIC OUTLOOK FOR TONIGHT.  
   
..NORTHEAST
 
 
SLOW-MOVING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES  
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG I-95 FROM BALTIMORE TO THE  
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, BUT SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING  
FOLLOWING SUNSET. OTHERWISE, INCREASING MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY  
FLOW AND PWS OVER 1.5" WILL LEAD TO ADDITION THUNDERSTORM CHANCES  
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL PA. A FEW INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO  
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.  
   
..FOUR CORNERS STATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
 
 
THE VAST SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK  
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND IT TO ENHANCE ASCENT AND RESULTING  
CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN  
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE FROM SOUTHEAST AZ AND NM TO NE/KS. MOST  
STORMS ARE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND NOT ORGANIZED ENOUGH FOR A RISK  
LEVEL ABOVE MRGL. HOWEVER, ANY CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO  
PRODUCE INTENSE RAIN RATES LEADING TO HOURLY RAINFALL OF 1-1.5",  
WHICH CAN STILL PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RESPONSES  
OVER VULNERABLE TERRAIN FEATURES OR BURN SCARS.  
 
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN, ONGOING CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY TRY TO  
CONGEAL ALONG AN AREA OF LOW-TO-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE  
NE/KS BORDER, BUT SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH WITHIN WESTERLY  
FLOW TO LIMIT FLASH FLOODING. MAINTAINED THE MRGL RISK HERE AND  
PREFERRED THE 23Z HRRR VS THE 20Z RRFS SOLUTION.  
 
SNELL  
 
 
DAY 2  
VALID 12Z TUE JUL 28 2026 - 12Z WED JUL 29 2026  
 
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE TRI-STATE  
AREA OF NEW JERSEY, NEW YORK, AND CONNECTICUT...  
   
..SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
 
 
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS TO  
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE  
TRI-STATE AREA ON TUESDAY.  
 
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL DEEPEN INTO A  
CLOSED LOW OVER UPSTATE NY TUESDAY EVENING, AND THEN AMPLIFY AS IT  
CURLS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. NAEFS 500-850MB HEIGHTS FALL TO  
BELOW THE 1ST PERCENTILE (OR EVEN BELOW THE MINIMUM CLIMATOLOGY)  
ACCORDING TO NAEFS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS INTENSE SYSTEM WILL HELP  
DRIVE INCREASING DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH  
THE ACCOMPANYING HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESULT IN BROAD DEEP LAYER  
ASCENT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SAME TIME,  
THE DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL FORCE ACCELERATION OF THE 850MB INFLOW,  
REFLECTED BY NAEFS PERCENTILES IN THE 850MB WIND TO ABOVE THE 99TH  
PERCENTILE, FORCING ROBUST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO THE MID-  
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST.  
 
AS IS TYPICAL FOR LATE JULY, PWS AND SBCAPE WILL BE NEAR  
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS (REFLECTED VIA THE SPC SOUNDING  
CLIMATOLOGY), AND THIS EVENT WILL BE NO DIFFERENT AS PWS ARE  
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES OVERLAPPING MUCAPE OF 2000-3000  
J/KG. STRONG ASCENT IN THE VICINITY OF THIS ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW  
AND NEAR THE ACCOMPANYING OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW INTO THESE STRONG  
THERMODYNAMICS SETS A SITUATION FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY, TRAINING  
RAINFALL, AND FLASH FLOODING.  
 
BOTH HREF AND REFS PROBABILITIES FOR 2"/HR RAINFALL REACH 15-25%,  
AND CORFIDI VECTORS ALIGNED ANTI- PARALLEL TO THE MEAN WIND WHICH  
WILL BE ALIGNED TO THE APPROACHING FRONT, SUGGESTS A STRONG  
BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING POTENTIAL. WHILE THERE IS STILL QUITE A  
BIT OF TIMING SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS CAMS AS TO WHEN THE  
STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL PIVOT THROUGH, THE EXCEEDANCE  
PROBABILITIES FOR BOTH 5"/24HRS AND 8"/24HRS ARE IMPRESSIVE (40-70%  
AND 10-30%, RESPECTIVELY) DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN POSITION.  
THIS COMBINED WITH THE 100-YR RI EXCEEDANCES EXCEEDING 20% INDICATE  
INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING WITH LOCALLY  
SIGNIFICANT EVENTS POSSIBLE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE AFFECTED  
WFOS, A MDT RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED, FOCUSED IN THE TRI-STATE  
REGION WHERE FFG IS ALREADY MORE VULNERABLE DUE TO RECENT RAIN AND  
THE GENERAL URBAN CORRIDOR.  
 
DESPITE THE MDT RISK IN PLACE FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA, IT SHOULD BE  
NOTED THAT THE REFS PROBABILITIES ARE A BIT DISPLACED SOUTH FROM  
THE HREF, AND FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL CLOSER TO PHILADELPHIA.  
THE SURROUNDING SLGT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS  
POTENTIAL, AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE  
HIGHER-END RISK AREAS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.  
   
..FOUR CORNERS STATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
 
 
THE EXPANSIVE MONSOON RIDGE WILL BECOME ADDITIONALLY SQUEEZED TUESDAY  
AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE ANTI-CYCLONICALLY AROUND IT BOTH TO THE NORTH  
AND SOUTH. THIS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED MONSOON  
CONVECTION AS PWS ABOVE 1 INCH RISE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS  
OVERLAPPED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT.  
ONCE AGAIN THE RISK WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN  
DURING THE ONSET OF PEAK HEATING, AND THEN THERE APPEARS TO BE  
SUFFICIENT SHEAR (20-30 KTS) FOR SOME ORGANIZATION OFF THE TERRAIN  
AND INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, PRIMARILY IN NM AND CO.  
 
STORM MOTIONS WILL AGAIN BE WEAK AS REFLECTED BY 0-6KM MEAN WINDS  
OF JUST 5-10 KTS, AND LOCALLY CHAOTIC MOTION IS LIKELY WHERE  
STORM CLUSTERS INTERACT WITH OTHER BOUNDARIES OR  
MERGERS/COLLISIONS. THE CAMS, AS WELL AS HREF/REFS PMM SUGGEST A  
LOCAL ENHANCEMENT TO QPF FROM FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH WESTERN  
NEW MEXICO AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO, WHICH IS WHERE MULTIPLE  
ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE  
AFFECTED WFOS, A SLGT RISK WAS INTRODUCED FOR THIS AXIS WHERE A  
GREATER RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS  
VULNERABLE TERRAIN FEATURES.  
   
..WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE KEYS
 
 
A SHORTWAVE DIVING ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA/WESTERN GULF WILL  
INTERACT WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO MAINTAIN DEEP LAYER ASCENT  
FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTH  
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. MEAN 0-6KM WINDS OF JUST 5-10 KTS WILL BE  
ALIGNED SW TO NW, ANTI- PARALLEL TO COLLAPSED CORFIDI VECTORS, AND  
PARALLEL TO THE KEYS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL REPEATEDLY  
BUILD ACROSS THE GULF WHERE PWS WILL BE POOLED AT 2-2.25 INCHES  
WITHIN IMPRESSIVE 2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE. THIS WILL SUPPORT  
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WHICH IS REFLECTED BY HIGH-RES CAM SIMULATED  
REFLECTIVITY. WITHIN THESE IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS, RAINFALL  
RATES OF 2-3"/HR ARE LIKELY AT TIMES, LEADING TO 2-4" OF RAINFALL  
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SOME OF THESE AREAS WILL BE SENSITIVE  
FROM HEAVY RAIN ON D1, SO A MRGL RISK WAS ADDED FOR THE POTENTIAL  
FOR ISOLATED IMPACTS ON TUESDAY.  
   
..MISSOURI VALLEY
 
 
A WEAKENING BUT NOTABLE SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING VORTICITY  
IMPULSE WILL CREST THE MONSOON RIDGE TO THE REST AND THEN RACE  
STEADILY SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSOURI  
VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT  
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE OZARKS, BUT BECOME ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE  
MID-LEVEL FLOW CAUSING IT TO STALL IN A NW TO SE ORIENTED FASHION.  
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT IT WILL HELP  
ACCELERATE THE ALREADY INTENSIFYING LLJ TO DRAW ROBUST  
THERMODYNAMICS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZING CLUSTERS OF  
CONVECTION OR AN MCS ALIGNING TO THE FRONT AS BOTH 0-6KM MEAN WINDS  
AND CORFIDI VECTORS BECOME PARALLEL. WITH RAINFALL RATES LIKELY  
REACHING 1-2"/HR AT TIMES, ANY TRAINING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO  
PRODUCE 2-4" OF RAIN (HREF AND REFS PROBABILITIES FOR 3+" 20-25%)  
LEADING TO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.  
 
WEISS  
 
 
DAY 3  
VALID 12Z WED JUL 29 2026 - 12Z THU JUL 30 2026  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF  
THE NORTHEAST...  
   
..NORTHEAST
 
 
AN OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW BENEATH AN ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW  
WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND  
ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH UPPER  
DIFFLUENCE WILL PRODUCE DEEP LAYER ASCENT INTO ROBUST  
THERMODYNAMICS CHARACTERIZED BY A PLUME OF 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH PWS AND  
MUCAPE OF 500-750 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, THE DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL  
ACCELERATE THE 850MB INFLOW TO 30-40 KTS, TAPPING ATLANTIC/GULF  
STREAM MOISTURE TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.  
 
THIS WILL SUPPORT AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE  
NORTHEAST, WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1"/HR OR MORE POSSIBLE AT TIMES,  
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD 1-3" OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS  
(SREF, GEFS, AND ECENS ALL HAVE AROUND A 10% CHANCE FOR 3+" OF  
RAIN).  
 
THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY WHICH MAY  
LIMIT THE RATES INTO VT/NH/ME, AND FFG IS ELEVATED FARTHER NORTH  
DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS. FOR THIS REASON, AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH  
THE WFOS, THE SLGT RISK WAS MODIFIED TO ENCOMPASS PRIMARILY  
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH A BROADER MRGL RISK COVERING MOST OF THE  
NORTHEAST.  
   
..FOUR CORNERS STATES INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS
 
 
MONSOONAL FLOW, LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED BY GENEVIEVE MOVING OFFSHORE  
BAJA CALIFORNIA, BRINGS ELEVATED MOISTURE OVER THE DESERT  
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND  
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MORE SUPPRESSED RIDGE WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE  
MESOSCALE/CONVECTIVELY AIDED SHORTWAVES TO PUSH OVER THE TOP/ACROSS  
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THESE  
COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO,  
AND THIS COULD FALL ATOP SOILS SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAIN ON D2. AT  
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR AN UPGRADE RISK DUE  
TO LOW PROBABILITIES AND UNCERTAINTY ABOUT STORM COVERAGE/SPEED,  
BUT IT IS POSSIBLE A SLGT RISK MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE HIGH  
PLAINS WITH LATER UPDATES.  
   
..CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
 
 
A COLD FRONT STALLING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SLOW  
MOVING AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES  
TO INDICATE A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR AT LEAST 3" OF RAIN DUE TO  
TRAINING OF 1-2"/HR RAIN RATES WITHIN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS.  
THIS REGION CAN GENERALLY TOLERATE SIGNIFICANT RAIN RATES AND THIS  
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL, BUT ANY MORE PRONOUNCED TRAINING COULD RESULT  
IN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RELATED IMPACTS.  
 
WEISS  
 
 
DAY 4 AND DAY 5  
 
VALID 12Z THU JUL 30 2026 - 12Z SAT AUG 01 2026  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...  
 
20Z UPDATE...  
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS  
TO THE DAY 4/5 EROS WAS TO EXTEND THE SLGT RISKS A TAD FARTHER  
SOUTH GIVEN LATEST MODEL QPF AND THE TENDENCY FOR THUNDERTSORMS IN  
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO EXTEND AND POTENTIALLY BACKBUILD  
FARTHER SOUTH THAN INITIALLY MODELED.  
 
SNELL  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
   
..LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
 
 
ON DAY 4 (THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT), CONVECTIVELY-AIDED SHORTWAVE  
ENERGY PROGRESSING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN PLAINS WILL  
AMPLIFY A BIT (DIG A BIT FARTHER SOUTH) UPON REACHING THE LOWER MO-  
MID MS VALLEYS) DURING THIS TIME AS THE ~600DM 500MB HIGH BECOMES  
CENTERED FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THERE'S NEAR TO  
ABOVE AVERAGE DISCREPANCY AMONGST THE 12Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE. THE  
GFS/ GEFS MEAN/AIGFS ARE A BIT FARTHER EAST COMPARED TO THE  
ECMWF/ECENS MEAN/EC AIFS, WITH THE CMC CAMP BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE  
IN TERMS OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION. IN ADDITION, THERE REMAINS  
LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF, WITH THE 00Z UKMET  
THE FARTHEST NORTH. GIVEN THE MCS/UPSCALE GROWTH POTENTIAL WITH  
THIS SYSTEM, CONSIDERING THE INFLUX OF 2-2.25+ PWS PER THE  
GUIDANCE, CONCENTRATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS THE CORN BELT GIVEN THE DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE PROFILE AND  
HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS. CERTAINLY AN EVENT THAT WOULD WARRANT A  
SLIGHT RISK, WHICH FOR NOW WE'VE CONFINED ACROSS EASTERN SD, FAR  
EASTERN NE AND NORTHEAST KS, INTO NORTHWEST MO, WESTERN 2/3 OF  
IOWA, AND SOUTHERN MN, WHERE THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF  
>3" IN 12/24 HOURS ARE HIGHEST.  
 
ON DAY 5 (FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT), HAVE ESSENTIALLY SHIFTED THE  
SLIGHT RISK AREA FARTHER DOWNSTREAM (EAST-SOUTHEAST) PER THE GLOBAL  
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. GLOBALS ALL SHOW SPOTTY HEAVY 24HR RAINFALL  
TOTALS, I.E. 3-5+ INCHES, THOUGH AGAIN WITH SOME SPATIAL SPREAD IN  
THE GUIDANCE. ECENS QPF EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES HAVE COME UP FROM  
THE PREVIOUS RUN, AND ARE CERTAINLY HIGHER COMPARED TO THE DAY 4  
PERIOD (MORE EXPANDED AREA OF 3 TO 5 INCH PROBABILITIES).  
   
..FOUR CORNERS STATES INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS
 
 
MONSOONAL FLOW AND ANOMALOUS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A  
MARGINAL (ISOLATED) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK OVER EASTERN AZ AND  
MUCH OF MN (EXCEPT SE PORTION) INTO SOUTHEAST UT AND THROUGH MUCH  
OF CO. THE EXPANDING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (600DM HEIGHTS AT 500  
MB) WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE COVERAGE COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS,  
ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY.  
   
..CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
 
 
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND CYCLONE'S  
TRAILING FRONT NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER. MOISTURE SHOULD BE AMPLE AND  
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR CONVECTIVE  
ORGANIZATION. THE INHERITED MARGINAL RISK AREAS FOR THURSDAY INTO  
FRIDAY NIGHT SAW ONLY A FEW COSMETIC CHANGES TO BETTER FIT THE  
MOST RECENT QPF GUIDANCE.  
 
HURLEY  
 
 
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT  
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT  
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT  
 

 
 
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