645
FXUS01 KWBC 290632
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
231 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
VALID 12Z WED JUL 29 2026 - 12Z FRI JUL 31 2026
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOODING RISK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST; FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
...MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FOSTER NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
AND THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, ROCKIES, AND
HIGH PLAINS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
...DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE EXPANDS FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEK...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, WHILE MAINTAINING
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN U.S. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER ROUND OF REPEATED RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.
POTENTIAL TRAINING MAY LEAD TO HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS AND RAIN
RATES, WHICH CAN PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER URBAN
CORRIDORS AND AREAS WHERE SOIL REMAINS SATURATED. THEREFORE, A
MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE, BUT
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE A RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
FARTHER SOUTH, THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHEAST WILL DRAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY STALLS. WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SLOW MOVING STORMS, WARM MOISTURE, AND INSTABILITY,
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE ORGANIZED CELLS.
THEREFORE, THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING FOR PARTS OF
THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY, AS REPEATED
RAINFALL AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY, STORM
PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5)
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
WIND GUST OVER AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY.
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, THE ACTIVE MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS, ROCKIES, AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. SLOW STORM
MOTIONS AND WARM MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCARS, SLOT CANYONS, AND VULNERABLE
TERRAIN. THEREFORE, A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS, WHILE A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/4) IS IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF COLORADO FOR WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS,
BUT SUFFICIENT MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FLASH
FLOODING RISK OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRANSVERSE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE PLAINS, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WITH STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY,
MOIST AIR, AND INCREASING SHEAR, ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. THE BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS, INCREASING THE RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SPC ALSO HAS A BROAD MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5)
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, DAMAGING WINDS, AND HAIL FOR NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OVER PARTS OF DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA.
DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AS THE UPPER
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE, BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS SEEING UP TO LOW 100S
ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 105 TO 115
DEGREES WITH THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
HUMIDITY, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK LEVELS,
WHICH WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR
HYDRATION. THE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND
PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY THURSDAY.
OUDIT
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