994
FXUS06 KWBC 311937
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI JULY 31 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 06 - 10 2026
THE 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE (ECENS), 6Z GEFS, AND 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE (CMCE) MEAN
FORECASTS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE PATTERN EVOLUTION WITH TIME. AN ENTRENCHED MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE CENTERED OVER OR NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD,
WITH A HEIGHT MAXIMUM OF 596-597 DM FORECAST BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE CLOSED
594-DM CONTOUR EXTENDS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN ONE-THIRD TO ONE-HALF OF THE
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES IN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, REPRESENTING A HEIGHT INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IN THE WESTERN CONUS THAN FARTHER EAST, PARTICULARLY IN
THE ECENS MEAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH
MORE WEIGHT PUT ON THE ECENS MEAN DUE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSISTENCY IN
MAINTAINING A LITTLE MORE AMPLITUDE IN THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE. WITH
TIME, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BROADENS
AND DEAMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE ECENS AND GEFS MEANS
PLACE 593-594 DM HEIGHT MAXIMA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WHILE THE CMCE MEAN PUSHES THE HIGHEST 500-HPA HEIGHTS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FLORIDA. THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE, BUT A BLEND OF THE
ECENS AND GEFS MEANS IS FAVORED, LEANING TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT ECENS WHICH
IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO DEAMPLIFY, CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY'S ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. FARTHER EAST, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES
SOUTHEASTWARD, LOWERING HEIGHTS TOWARD NORMAL OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE CMCE
REMAINS MOST AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE, BRINGING 500-HPA HEIGHTS DOWN TO 6 DM
OR MORE BELOW NORMAL IN THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CONUS AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE ECENS AND GEFS MEANS ARE LESS AMPLIFIED, FORECASTING NEAR-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. AGAIN, A BLEND MOSTLY OF THE ECENS
AND GEFS MEANS IS PREFERRED SINCE THESE ARE SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND TO
YESTERDAY'S MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND MAP. FARTHER NORTH, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ALL
DEPICT NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA, AND
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGHEST LATITUDES OF NORTH
AMERICA FROM GREENLAND WESTWARD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS
BAND OF ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY DEAMPLIFY SLOWLY WITH TIME, BUT THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS ALL SHOW ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS PERSISTING HERE THROUGH
THE END OF WEEK-2. THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF MAINLAND ALASKA. THE ECENS MEAN IS DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE
THAN THE GEFS AND CMCE MEANS. THE ECENS MEAN SHOWS -3 TO -6 DM 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF MAINLAND ALASKA EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WHILE THE CMCE MEAN SHOWS NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS AND THE GEFS MEAN
ACTUALLY SHOWS POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES (+3 TO +6 DM). ALL OF THESE FORECASTS
FOR THE START OF THE 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD ARE A BIT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY'S
RUNS, CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THIS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN WITH TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS,
LEANING TOWARD THE ECENS WHICH IS A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY'S
RUN, FILLING THE TROUGH IN A BIT MORE SLOWLY.
WITH ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA MEAN HEIGHTS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS, THE
FORECAST LIKEWISE FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (OVER 70 PERCENT) STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT BASIN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE UPPER RED RIVER (SOUTH)
VALLEY. CHANCES FOR ABNORMAL WARMTH EXCEED 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
CONUS, WITH LOWER ODDS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES REGION CLOSEST TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START THE
PERIOD CONSIDERABLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHEAST, BUT ARE FORECAST TO DROP
CLOSER TO NORMAL IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE 500-HPA HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED THERE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. FARTHER NORTH, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA UNDER RISING HEIGHTS, THE NORTHERN, WESTERN, AND
PART OF THE SOUTHERN TIERS OF THE MAINLAND ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE CLOSER TO
NORMAL, BUT PART OF THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND HAVE NOMINALLY ELEVATED CHANCES
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PARTIALLY DRIVEN BY ANOMALOUSLY LOW SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND ICE COVERAGE IN ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS. MEANWHILE, WEAK
500-HPA RIDGING IS EXPECTED ACROSS HAWAII, ALONG WITH ABNORMALLY HIGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. THIS FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STATEWIDE, WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM NEAR 50 PERCENT ACROSS
KAUAI AND NIIHAU IN THE NORTHWEST TO MORE THAN 80 PERCENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE BIG ISLAND.
THE ORIENTATION OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD FAVORS AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST
INCURSION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE MONSOONAL CIRCULATION
INTENSIFIES. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST THAT TYPICALLY RECEIVE INCREASED RAINFALL DURING THE MONSOON,
CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARIZONA WHERE ODDS FOR SURPLUS
PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST, UNDER BROADLY
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CIRCUMVENTING THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE, SUBNORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND MOST OF THE PLAINS. CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TOTALS EXCEED 50
PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN OREGON AND ADJACENT IDAHO, WHERE THE CONSOLIDATION AND
MANY OF THE RAW AND DERIVED ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION TOOLS HAVE SHOWN THE BEST
CHANCES FOR DRYNESS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. A SECONDARY MAXIMUM WHERE CHANCES
FOR DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXCEED 40 PERCENT COVERS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA, AND SOME ADJACENT AREAS. THE ECENS RAW AND
REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOLS FAVOR SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR DRYNESS IN
THIS REGION, AS DOES THE CONSOLIDATION. RAW PRECIPITATION OUTPUT FROM THE GEFS,
GEFS-AI, AND NAEFS MEANS ARE SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE,
BUT THE ECENS OUTPUT IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED MID-LEVEL PATTERN AND
WITH ENSEMBLE RUNS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONDITIONS REMAIN A LITTLE LESS
CERTAIN FARTHER EAST. IN AGGREGATE, THE RAW ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FAVOR INCREASED
ODDS FOR SURPLUS PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES, UPPER OHIO
VALLEY, AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST CLOSEST TO THE ENCROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE
REFORECAST TOOLS ARE LESS ROBUST WITH THIS SIGNAL, AND GENERALLY SPREAD
MARGINALLY INCREASED ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH A LARGE PART
OF THE EASTERN CONUS. A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST, WHICH PUTS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ODDS FOR SURPLUS PRECIPITATION OVER THE
ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST CLOSE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. ACROSS ALASKA, THE RAW AND
REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOLS FROM THE ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS SUBNORMAL
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WESTERN TIER OF THE STATE AND NEAR NORMAL AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION AND THE ECENS REFORECAST. IN
HAWAII, BETWEEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TO THE EAST AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS TO THE WEST, THERE IS A SLIGHT TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION STATEWIDE, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION AND A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARD THE ECENS MEAN.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 15%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET BY
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DETAILS OF THE SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION EXPECTED LATE IN THE
PERIOD, ALONG WITH INCREASING DISPARITY AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 08 - 14 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD ALL PREDICT A SIMILAR MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION PATTERN TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST. AFTER SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION AND BROADENING OF THE RIDGE EARLY WEEK-2, A PREPONDERANCE OF
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DEGREE OF REAMPLIFICATION. HOWEVER, THE DETAILS OF THIS
EVOLUTION ARE UNCERTAIN, WITH THE DAILY ENSEMBLE MEANS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AT
BEST ON THE TIMING OF REAMPLIFICATION AND THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTER, THE MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY SHOWING A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THE MANUAL BLEND PLACES BELOW NORMAL MEAN
WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHTS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CONUS, BUT MAINTAINS ABOVE
NORMAL MEAN HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. THE MANUAL BLEND DEPICTS AN AXIS OF
+3 TO +6 DM POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS, THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHEAST, WHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS LEANING TOWARD THE ECENS MEAN. BY THE END OF WEEK-2, THE ECENS MEAN IS NO
LONGER THE MOST AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. THE GEFS MEAN DEPICTS THE MOST
REAMPLIFICATION OF THE 500-HPA RIDGE, WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING ROUGHLY NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE PLAINS AND
EASTERN ROCKIES. THE CMCE MEAN HAS A SIMILAR CONFIGURATION BUT WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS AMPLITUDE AND MAINTAINING HIGHER MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE GULF COAST,
FLORIDA, AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHEAST. THE ECENS IS SIMILARLY LESS AMPLIFIED LIKE
THE CMCE MEAN, AND ITS RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES MORE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT, THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN LATER WEEK-2 IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT WITH
EACH OTHER, NOR WITH THEIR OWN PRIOR RUNS, BUT ALL FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS A VAST MAJORITY OF THE CONUS, AND A RELATIVELY
STRONG MONSOON CIRCULATION PATTERN TAKING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INCREASED
RAINFALL CONSIDERABLY FARTHER NORTH THAN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS A VAST MAJORITY OF
THE CONUS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND BROADLY ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS. THE BEST WEEK-2 CHANCES FOR ABNORMAL WARMTH (60 TO 70 PERCENT)
EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD THROUGH MOST OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR
WARMTH COVER THE GULF COAST. THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL WEEK-2 TEMPERATURES
DECREASES FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ENCROACHING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH, WITH NEAR NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES FAVORED IN AREAS CLOSEST
TO THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER NORTHEAST. THE
FORECAST OF ROBUST MONSOONAL RAINFALL ALSO LOWERS THE ODDS FOR ABNORMAL WARMTH
THERE AS WELL, WITH CHANCES DROPPING BELOW 50 PERCENT FROM SOUTHERN UTAH
THROUGH MOST OF ARIZONA. WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS
MOST OF INTERIOR MAINLAND ALASKA, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NOMINALLY MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE ADJACENT TO COLDER THAN NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UNUSUALLY EXTENSIVE ICE COVERAGE IN OFFSHORE WATERS.
ACROSS HAWAII, WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE BIG ISLAND, FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STATEWIDE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABNORMAL WARMTH AGAIN EXCEEDS 80
PERCENT ON SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND.
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS AN INCREASINGLY STRONG MONSOONAL CIRCULATION, WITH
THE REFORECAST ECENS PRECIPITATION OUTPUT BEING THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS
SIGNAL. THE FORECAST AGAIN SIGNIFICANTLY FAVORS WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
IN THE SOUTHWEST, WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR SURPLUS PRECIPITATION STRETCHING
FARTHER NORTH THAN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND THE
ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EXCEEDS 50 PERCENT NEAR FROM THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN
NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD THROUGH MOST OF ARIZONA, SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA, AND
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH. FARTHER EAST, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING FAVORS BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS, WITH THE BEST ODDS (OVER
40 PERCENT) STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER AND THE TEXAS GULF COAST
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS, MOST OF OKLAHOMA, AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE ECENS, CMCE, AND GEFS MEANS ALL FORECAST LESS THAN 0.25â OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS REGION DURING WEEK-2. FARTHER EAST, THE TOOLS SHOW
WEAK SIGNALS AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT NOMINALLY FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IN THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ADJACENT TO CANADA, AND A
COMPROMISE OF THE RAW AND REFORECAST ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION TOOLS SHOW
MARGINALLY INCREASED ODDS FOR SUBNORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS FLORIDA. USING A BLEND
OF THE GUIDANCE OF THE CONSOLIDATION, THE REFORECAST ECENS PRECIPITATION TOOL,
AND THE AUTOBLEND, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS NOMINALLY FAVORED FROM
WEST-CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHERN ALASKA WHILE THE ODDS TILT SLIGHTLY TOWARD
SURPLUS PRECIPITATION IN PART OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINLAND. HAWAII ALSO HAS
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION, EXCEEDING 40 PERCENT
ON THE BIG ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF MAUI, CONSISTENT WITH THE
CONSOLIDATION AND THE RAW ECENS FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 17% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 8%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE AT BEST, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
ADEQUATE MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OFFSET BY
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE PATTERN EVOLUTION LATE IN THE PERIOD, AND SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: RICH TINKER
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20010805 - 19980713 - 19930730 - 20170728 - 20080729
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20010805 - 20030711 - 20210724 - 20000813 - 19980715
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 06 - 10 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 08 - 14 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE N N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N B
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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