509
FXUS06 KWBC 011902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SAT AUGUST 01 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 07 - 11 2026
MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE OVER NORTH AMERICA
AND SURROUNDING REGIONS AND FEATURE BROAD POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). WEAK TROUGHING IS
INDICATED OVER HUDSON BAY AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES, THEY ALL GENERALLY PORTRAY THE PATTERN DESCRIBED
TO BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPANSIVE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CONUS AND MOST OF ALASKA. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE LOWER 48, WHERE ODDS EXCEEDING 50% ARE UNIVERSAL FOR
ALL BUT THE NORTHERN TIER, AND ABOVE 70% FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN,
SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. WEAK TROUGHING OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA FAVORS NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WESTERN COAST,
THE ALASKAN PENINSULA AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. POSITIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES AND INCREASING FORCING FROM EL NINO STRONGLY FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS HAWAII.
MODEL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERN MONSOON, TILTING THE
ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHILE A VERY WEAK JET STREAM FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. WEAK
TROUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY MAY PRODUCE WEAK FRONTAL ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS, SLIGHTLY TILTING THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE DEPICTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH PACIFIC, WHICH RESULTS IN A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE IS
INDICATED FOR NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION WITH LITTLE SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE TO PUSH
THE FORECAST EITHER WETTER OR DRIER. CONTINUED ENHANCED TROPICAL CONVECTION
TILTS HAWAII TOWARDS ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET BY MODERATE SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 09 - 15 2026
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE DURING
WEEK-2 RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. PERSISTENT RIDGING REMAINS OVER MUCH OF
THE CONUS, AND THE MOST NOTABLE DIFFERENCE FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS A SLIGHT
DEEPENING OF TROUGHING OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND HUDSON BAY.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE CONUS AND ALASKA.
PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD BUT
REMAIN ABOVE 50% FOR MOST OF THE LOWER 48, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN
TIER, ALONG THE WEST COAST, AND PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA, WHILE TROUGHING OVER THE
ALEUTIANS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND THE ALEUTIANS, AND CONTINUED WARM SSTS NEAR HAWAII STRONGLY TILT
THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII.
AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERN MONSOON IS DEPICTED INTO WEEK-2, FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, ROCKIES, AND HIGH
PLAINS, WHILE INCREASED TROUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER ODDS (>40%) OVER
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER MAY REDUCE THE FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS,
RESULTING IN A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEAK SIGNALS AMONGST FORECAST
TOOLS CONTINUES OVER ALASKA, AND THE WHOLE STATE IS INDICATED FOR NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. HAWAII CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DUE
TO INCREASED TROPICAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET BY MODERATE SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20010805 - 19980713 - 20170729 - 20210724 - 19930730
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20010805 - 19980714 - 20210724 - 20030711 - 20080729
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 07 - 11 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 09 - 15 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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