568
FXUS01 KWBC 011948
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
347 PM EDT SAT AUG 01 2026
VALID 00Z SUN AUG 02 2026 - 00Z TUE AUG 04 2026
...EXTREME FIRE WEATHER RISK EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO MOVE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...DANGEROUS HEAT TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS..
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, PARTICULARLY FROM NORTHERN OREGON
INTO CENTRAL WASHINGTON. STRONG WINDS, LOCALLY REACHING 75 MPH,
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS, COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING DRY AIR FROM THE MOUNTAINS, WILL
ALLOW FIRES TO IGNITE AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO RECOVER, WHICH WILL PROLONG THE FIRE WEATHER RISK INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISKS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, PARTICULARLY IN PARTS OF
IDAHO, MONTANA, AND WYOMING. A DRY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY, WHERE GUSTY POST-FRONTAL
WINDS WILL EXACERBATE THE FIRE WEATHER RISK IN THE AREA TO START
THE NEW WORK WEEK.
A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL
BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY POSE A RISK OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS,
ALONGSIDE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. AS SUCH, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY. PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE PRESENT, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES, SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SOUTH TO
THE GULF COAST. RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
FLASH FLOODING; CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY ACROSS THIS REGION. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT ONTO THE EAST
COAST ON SUNDAY, BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING TO
PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.
THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE EAST COAST INTO MONDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE NEW
WORK WEEK.
MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PLAINS, EXTREME HEAT IS
SET TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF
110 TO 120 DEGREES ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE
SOUTHWEST. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 90S AND 100S ARE LIKELY FARTHER
NORTHEAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND HIGH PLAINS, WHERE
RECORD-BREAKING WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIMIT RELIEF. A STAGNANT
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW DANGEROUS HEAT TO
PERSIST WELL INTO THE WEEK.
BLANCO-ALCALA
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