259
FXUS01 KWBC 020713
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
312 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2026
VALID 12Z SUN AUG 02 2026 - 12Z TUE AUG 04 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
GULF COAST OF FLORIDA, AND THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND, CAROLINA COAST AND
THE EASTERN GULF COAST OF FLORIDA ON MONDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO
TEXAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTWARD TO EASTERN TEXAS BY
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST, AND ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THERE WILL BE THREE AREAS OF A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. ONE AREA
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, THE SECOND OVER
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST, AND A THIRD OVER THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,
AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON MONDAY, THERE WILL BE THREE AREAS OF A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY: ONE
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND, THE SECOND
ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTHERN CAROLINA COAST, AND THE THIRD OVER
THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,
AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE.
A SECOND FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST, THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY
WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. THEREFORE,
THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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