364
FXUS01 KWBC 022004
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 PM EDT SUN AUG 02 2026
VALID 00Z MON AUG 03 2026 - 00Z WED AUG 05 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND, THE FLORIDA BIG BEND,
AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA FOR MONDAY...
...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST EARLY THIS WEEK...
...THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, ONE AREA OF FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION. TOMORROW, EXPECT CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, ON THE ORDER OF ANOTHER 1-3
INCHES, AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF IN A HIGH
MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. A SLIGHT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT, ESPECIALLY
AS SOILS ARE MORE SATURATED AFTER PREVIOUS DAYS OF RAIN. ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND, HIGH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND LIFT FROM A NEARBY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A
SWATH OF A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN FROM EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NEW JERSEY NORTHWARD TO MASSACHUSETTS. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
RUN-OFF OVER THE URBAN 95 CORRIDOR AND SATURATED SOILS FROM LAST
WEEK'S STORM WARRANTS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON
MONDAY. LASTLY, SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL SEE A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH A FORECAST MORE ACTIVE MONSOON.
GOING INTO TUESDAY, A MARGINAL RISK EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK IS
SHADED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND APPALACHIANS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS OVER THE REGION. THIS RAIN WILL ALSO OVERLAP WITH THIS
PREVIOUS WEEK'S STORMS AND ALLOW FOR MORE WATER RUN-OFF POTENTIAL.
ACROSS THE MIDWEST, A COLD FRONT OVER NEBRASKA, IOWA, AND
WISCONSIN WILL SERVE TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS AND BRING WITH IT
SOME RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AS HOURLY RAINFALL RATES
MAY NEAR OR EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR. THE MONSOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WARRANTS A BROAD MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE BURN SCARS AND
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO, WITH A TARGETED
SLIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND
SLOW STORM MOTIONS ARE THE FORECAST RATIONALE FOR THE SLIGHT
ACROSS ARIZONA.
ON MONDAY, A SLIGHT RISK WAS ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA FOR THE THREATS OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EMBEDDED WITHIN SUPERCELLS. A MARGINAL
RISK IS VALID FROM NEW JERSEY NORTHWARDS TO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
VERMONT FOR THE THREATS OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. A MARGINAL
RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AS THUNDERSTORMS PULSE WITH THE MONSOON.
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON TUESDAY
AS CLUSTERS OF STORMS FORM WITHIN THE MONSOON PATTERN. THE MIDWEST
MAY ALSO LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN STORM INTENSITY
PREVENTED A MARGINAL RISK CATEGORY.
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A STORY OUT WEST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. SEVERAL DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE LIKELY IN ADDITION TO RECORD BREAKING LOW
TEMPERATURES. HEATRISK REMAINS WIDESPREAD IN THE MAJOR TO EXTREME
RISK THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. EXCESSIVE HEAT IS ALSO
PRESENT ACROSS THE CASCADES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S, PARTICULARLY
STARTING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE REGION.
WILDER
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