446
FXUS01 KWBC 030800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2026
VALID 12Z MON AUG 03 2026 - 12Z WED AUG 05 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND, CAROLINA COAST,
THE EASTERN GULF COAST OF FLORIDA, AND THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST, ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND
THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO TEXAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST, AND ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF COAST. THERE WILL BE THREE AREAS OF A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY ON MONDAY. ONE AREA OF A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND /NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, THE SECOND OVER THE
CAROLINA COAST, AND A THIRD OVER THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING
AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON TUESDAY, THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFF THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
REST OF THE FRONT WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST. THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL
DIMINISH TO A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE.
A SECOND FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
MONDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES.
ADDITIONALLY, ON WEDNESDAY, THE WPC INCREASES THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THREAT TO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) FROM SOUTHWESTERN
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWESTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,
AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE. ADDITIONALLY,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MOREOVER, MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN
AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST
VULNERABLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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