708
FXUS06 KWBC 031902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON AUGUST 03 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 09 - 13 2026
MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE
ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE OVER NORTH
AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS AND FEATURE BROAD POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). WEAK TROUGHING IS
INDICATED OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST, AND STRONGER TROUGHING
IS INDICATED OVER HUDSON BAY. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS
ENSEMBLES, THEY ALL GENERALLY PORTRAY THE PATTERN DESCRIBED TO BE PERSISTENT
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD, AND A SLIGHT TENDENCY OF THE
TROUGHS TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESSIVELY DEEPEN IS NOTED. MODEL SPREAD REMAINS HIGH
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AS NOTED IN 500-HPA SPAGHETTI CHARTS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH HIGHER OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
EXPANSIVE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CONUS AND MOST OF ALASKA. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE LOWER 48, WHERE ODDS EXCEEDING 50% ARE ALMOST
UNIVERSAL FROM THE GREAT BASIN EASTWARD ALL THE WAY TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD,
AND ABOVE 70% FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. WEAK
TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA FAVORS NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST
LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST)
ANOMALIES AND INCREASING FORCING FROM EL NINO STRONGLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS HAWAII.
MODEL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERN MONSOON, TILTING THE
ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHILE A VERY WEAK JET STREAM FAVORS NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
WEAK TROUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY MAY PRODUCE WEAK FRONTAL ACTIVITY OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS, SLIGHTLY TILTING THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ALONG THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES (40-50%) OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES, AND THE OHIO AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. RIDGING OVER THE COUNTRY'S
MIDSECTION MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS,
RESULTING IN A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
DEPICTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH PACIFIC, WHICH RESULTS IN A SLIGHT TILT
TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
ALASKA, WHILE INCREASING TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA INTRODUCES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. CONTINUED
ENHANCED TROPICAL CONVECTION TILTS HAWAII TOWARDS ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET BY MODERATE SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 11 - 17 2026
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE DURING
WEEK-2 RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. PERSISTENT RIDGING REMAINS OVER MUCH OF
THE CONUS, AND THE MOST NOTABLE DIFFERENCE FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS A SLIGHT
DEEPENING OF TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST AND HUDSON BAY.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF ALASKA AND THE
CONUS. PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD BUT REMAIN ABOVE 50% FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
DUE TO ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION FROM THE MONSOON AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST, AS INDICATED BY MOST FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR NEW ENGLAND, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING OVER HUDSON
BAY. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE INDICATED FOR MOST OF ALASKA,
WHILE TROUGHING OVER THE ALEUTIANS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE ALEUTIANS, AND CONTINUED WARM
SSTS NEAR HAWAII STRONGLY TILT THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
HAWAII.
AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERN MONSOON IS DEPICTED INTO WEEK-2, FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, ROCKIES, AND HIGH
PLAINS, WHILE INCREASED TROUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER ODDS (>40%) OVER
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER MAY REDUCE THE FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS,
RESULTING IN A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA
TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHWESTERN ALASKA,
WHILE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC FAVORS NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. HAWAII CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
DUE TO INCREASED TROPICAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET BY MODERATE SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20210723 - 20170729 - 20190731 - 20010806 - 20210718
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980714 - 20010805 - 20210723 - 20170728 - 19960816
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 09 - 13 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 11 - 17 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B A MAINE B N
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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