632
FXUS01 KWBC 040651
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
250 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2026
VALID 12Z TUE AUG 04 2026 - 12Z THU AUG 06 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE CAROLINA COAST, THE EASTERN GULF COAST OF FLORIDA,
AND THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE-RICH AIR AND A NEARBY
FRONT WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, THE SOUTHEAST, AND FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA.
MOREOVER, MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
A SECOND FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM SOUTHWESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page