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FXUS06 KWBC 041902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE AUGUST 04 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 10 - 14 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT ON THE AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND
CANADIAN MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
GREATER DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES BROAD POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS).
WEAK TROUGHING IS INDICATED ALONG THE WEST COAST, AND STRONGER TROUGHING IS
INDICATED OVER HUDSON BAY. MODEL SPREAD REMAINS HIGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AS
NOTED IN 500-HPA SPAGHETTI CHARTS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA. ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHILE A TROUGH IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN MODEL FORECASTS.
EXPANSIVE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE LOWER 48, WHERE ODDS EXCEEDING 50% ARE ALMOST
UNIVERSAL FROM THE GREAT BASIN EASTWARD ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC
SEABOARD, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS FROM PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST, ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
PREDICTED OVER THE HUDSON BAY. FOR ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE STATE, DUE TO THE ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES AND INCREASING FORCING FROM EL
NINO STRONGLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH
THE CONSOLIDATION TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL.
MODEL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERN MONSOON, TILTING THE
ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHILE A VERY WEAK JET STREAM FAVORS NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TROUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY MAY PRODUCE WEAK FRONTAL ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS, SLIGHTLY TILTING THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MOST
OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES (40-50%) OVER PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY, NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA UNDER ABOVE
NORMAL 500 HPA HEIGHTS. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER MOST OF
ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY THE OPERATIONAL AUTOBLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL.
CONTINUED ENHANCED TROPICAL CONVECTION TILTS HAWAII TOWARDS ABOVE-AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET BY MODERATE SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 12 - 18 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH SOME
REDUCTION OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES RELATIVE TO THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, PERSISTENT
RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS, WHILE A
WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MOST NOTABLE DIFFERENCE FROM
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS A SLIGHT DEEPENING OF TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST. A
TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS. ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. NEAR NORMAL MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS.
PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD BUT
REMAIN ABOVE 50% FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS
INDICATED BY MOST FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE INDICATED FOR MOST OF ALASKA UNDER ABOVE NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS, WHILE TROUGHING OVER THE ALEUTIANS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALEUTIANS. CONTINUED WARM SSTS NEAR HAWAII
STRONGLY TILT THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAII
ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL.
AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERN MONSOON IS DEPICTED INTO WEEK-2, FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, ROCKIES, AND HIGH
PLAINS, WHILE INCREASED TROUGHING FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER ODDS (>40%) OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST. CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY REDUCE THE FLOW OF GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, RESULTING IN A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE GULF COAST STATES.TROUGHING OVER THE ALEUTIANS TILTS THE
ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND MOST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. HAWAII CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
(ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS) DUE TO INCREASED TROPICAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: 3 OUT OF 5, WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET BY MODERATE SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190801 - 20210723 - 19980814 - 20210718 - 20170731
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20210722 - 19980714 - 20010805 - 20190731 - 20170729
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 10 - 14 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 12 - 18 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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