113
FXUS06 KWBC 061902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU AUGUST 06 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 12 - 16 2026
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC, NORTHEAST, AND WEAKLY OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE DOMINANT WITH
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND
ALASKA. HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXCEED 120M OVER PARTS OF THE ARCTIC AND NORTHERN
ALASKA. THESE ANOMALY PATTERNS LEAD TO WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST, ALONG
THE WEST COAST, AND CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST,
INTERIOR WEST, AND FROM NORTH OF HAWAII THROUGH ALASKA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE STRONGEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL ARE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BENEATH SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING AND OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
WHERE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
ABOVE NORMAL REMAINS THE FAVORED CATEGORY IN MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
HOWEVER, ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT THE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AND ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS ANOMALOUS AS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS ACROSS THE WEST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
BENEATH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING. THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS MOST LIKELY TO SET UP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED IN HAWAII WITH ABOVE
NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASING EL NINO SIGNATURE.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE WEST. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
BRINGS ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND FLORIDA BENEATH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING. IN ALASKA, NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE, WHILE NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA. FOR
HAWAII, RAW MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5, GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE STATISTICAL TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 14 - 20 2026
THE HEIGHT PATTERN DURING WEEK-2 IS MUCH THE SAME AS THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL TOOLS. MOST OF THE MAIN FEATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD BUT OTHERWISE
REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS MOST
OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE STRONGEST ANOMALIES OVER NORTHERN ALASKA AND THE
ARCTIC. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
ANOMALIES STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF HAWAII THROUGH MAINLAND ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS REMAIN FAVORED OVER THE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS IN THE CENTRAL NORTH
PACIFIC.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY
DURING WEEK-2. AS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE STRONGEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BENEATH SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING AND OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA WHERE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. ELEVATED CHANCES FOR MONSOON MOISTURE ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT THE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH SOME TOOLS NOW FAVORING NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE, NEAR NORMAL HAS BEEN INTRODUCED INTO MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY'S FORECAST. ABOVE NORMAL
REMAINS FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST, MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS,
ROCKIES, AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
BENEATH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING. THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY TO LINGER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED IN HAWAII WITH ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASING EL NINO SIGNATURE.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
CONTINUED MOISTURE ACROSS THE WEST. IN THE EASTERN CONUS, THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHING MAY BRING ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
MUCH OF WEEK-2. IN ALASKA, NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE, WHILE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER
NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA. IN HAWAII, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR ELEVATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5, GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE STATISTICAL TOOLS.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20170802 - 20240802 - 20230717 - 19980815 - 20190731
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190801 - 20170801 - 20230716 - 20240802 - 20230722
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 12 - 16 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 14 - 20 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page