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FXUS06 KWBC 071902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI AUGUST 07 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 13 - 17 2026
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC, NORTHEAST, AND WEAKLY OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE DOMINANT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND ALASKA. 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
EXCEED 90M OVER PARTS OF THE ARCTIC AND NORTHERN ALASKA. THESE ANOMALY PATTERNS
LEAD TO TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST, ALONG THE WEST COAST, AND CENTRAL NORTH
PACIFIC AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST, INTERIOR WEST, AND FROM NORTH OF HAWAII
THROUGH ALASKA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS, PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, ALASKA, AND HAWAII DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE STRONGEST CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BENEATH SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING
AND OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WHERE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A BROADER AREA OF NEAR NORMAL IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS AS TOOLS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AT LEAST TEMPORARY
RELIEF FROM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
BENEATH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING. THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS MOST LIKELY TO SET UP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED IN HAWAII WITH ABOVE
NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASING EL NINO SIGNATURE.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE WEST. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
BRINGS ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND FLORIDA BENEATH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING. IN ALASKA, NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE, WHILE NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA. FOR
HAWAII, RAW MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5, GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE STATISTICAL TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 15 - 21 2026
THE HEIGHT PATTERN DURING WEEK-2 IS MUCH THE SAME AS THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL TOOLS. MOST OF THE MAIN FEATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY AND NEAR THEIR 6-10 DAY PERIOD
POSITIONS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CONUS AND NORTHWEST AND OVER ALASKA. THE STRONGEST ANOMALIES
REMAIN FORECAST OVER NORTHERN ALASKA AND THE ARCTIC. MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND
ASSOCIATED POSITIVE ANOMALIES STRETCH FROM NORTH OF HAWAII THROUGH MAINLAND
ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS REMAIN FAVORED OVER THE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS IN
THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY
DURING WEEK-2. AS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE STRONGEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BENEATH SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING AND OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA WHERE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. ELEVATED CHANCES FOR MONSOON MOISTURE ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT THE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST,
MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS, ROCKIES, AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE WEAK MID-LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
BENEATH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING. THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY TO LINGER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED IN HAWAII WITH ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASING EL NINO SIGNATURE.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
CONTINUED MOISTURE ACROSS THE WEST. IN THE EASTERN CONUS, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A DRYING TREND BEGINS BY THE MIDDLE
TO END OF WEEK-2. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THIS REGION, THE DRIER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING. FURTHER NORTH, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS WEAKENING AND PROGRESSING EAST
WITH TIME, REDUCING FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. IN
ALASKA, NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE, WHILE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER NORTHERN MAINLAND
ALASKA. IN HAWAII, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5, GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE STATISTICAL TOOLS.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20170802 - 20240802 - 20100817 - 19900718 - 20230806
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20230717 - 20170801 - 20240802 - 20190801 - 20180720
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 13 - 17 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA A A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 15 - 21 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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