832
FXUS01 KWBC 090710
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
309 AM EDT SUN AUG 09 2026
VALID 12Z SUN AUG 09 2026 - 12Z TUE AUG 11 2026
...HEAT TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS, WITH RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...
AS WE APPROACH MID-AUGUST, MUCH OF THE NATION'S WEATHER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER-RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48,
WITH THE GREATEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA
AND THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EASTWARD TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RECORD-BREAKING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90'S AND
TRIPLE DIGITS WITH VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND HIGH PLAINS TODAY
AND TOMORROW. ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF WILL SUPPORT DAILY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST. MONSOONAL
CONVECTION WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME LOCALIZED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN, BUT THESE STORMS WILL POSE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. FARTHER NORTH, DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM PARTS OF THE CASCADES EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, SUPPORTING CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
MEANWHILE, A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
HEARTLAND WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. WIDELY SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
TODAY, A CONCENTRATED AREA OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN IOWA ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA. ON MONDAY, THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA, WITH ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL
ALSO POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST.
IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL, SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
OHIO VALLEY, WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND EXACERBATE FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDWEEK,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC.
ASHERMAN/PEREIRA
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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