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FXUS06 KWBC 091902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN AUGUST 09 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 15 - 19 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND
CANADIAN MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
GREATER DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC, NORTHEAST, AND ALONG THE WEST
COAST. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE DOMINANT ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND MAINLAND ALASKA. THESE ANOMALY
PATTERNS LEAD TO TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST, ALONG THE WEST COAST, AND
CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FROM NORTH OF HAWAII
THROUGH ALASKA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS, ALASKA, AND HAWAII DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE
STRONGEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS BENEATH SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING AND OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WHERE POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS, SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE OPERATIONAL
AUTOBLEND AND ERF CONSOLIDATION TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED IN HAWAII WITH ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASING EL NINO SIGNATURE.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROUGH PREDICTED ALONG THE WEST COAST AND MONSOON MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY
INTO THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING AND MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BRINGS ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, CONSISTENT WITH
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA BENEATH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING. IN
ALASKA, NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR ALEUTIANS AND PARTS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF A TROUGH
PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA UNDER ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. FOR
HAWAII, RAW MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5, GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE STATISTICAL TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 17 - 23 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE
6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. DURING THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD, MOST OF THE MAIN FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
STATIONARY AND NEAR THEIR 6-10 DAY PERIOD POSITIONS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS
REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS, AND
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. MID-LEVEL TROUGHS AND
ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN FAVORED OVER THE ALEUTIANS, THE
NORTHEAST, AS WELL AS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY DURING WEEK-2. AS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE STRONGEST CHANCES FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
BENEATH SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING AND OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WHERE POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST BENEATH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING, SUPPORTED BY MOST
OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORED IN HAWAII WITH ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASING
EL NINO SIGNATURE.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
CONTINUED MOISTURE ACROSS THE WEST, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. IN THE EASTERN CONUS, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TIED TO
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FORECAST
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS UNDER A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE REGION
ALTHOUGH IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND PROGRESS EAST WITH TIME. IN ALASKA, ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE STATE, AHEAD OF A TROUGH
FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS. IN HAWAII, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR ELEVATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5, GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE STATISTICAL TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20170803 - 20240803 - 20100817 - 19980720 - 20250822
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20170802 - 20240803 - 20100817 - 20180722 - 20250822
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 15 - 19 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 17 - 23 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN N N RHODE IS B N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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