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FXUS06 KWBC 101910
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON AUGUST 10 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 16 - 20 2026
THE 0Z ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE FORECASTS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PREDICTED MEAN LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON 0Z ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE
500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, WEIGHTING THE ECENS GREATER DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES NEGATIVE 500-HPAHEIGHT ANOMALIES AND/OR
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC/ALEUTIANS, NEAR THE WEST
COAST OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), AND THE NORTHEAST. POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND/OR MID-LEVEL RIDGING ARE DOMINANT ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES, AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE ISLANDS THEMSELVES.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, THE
SOUTHERN-, CENTRAL-, AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, SOUTHEAST,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND MID-ATLANTIC. MAXIMUM CHANCES FAVORING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 80-90 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION, GENERALLY COLLOCATED WITH THE HIGHEST MEAN HEIGHTS. A SMALL
RESIDUAL AREA FAVORING RELATIVE WARMTH IS ALSO INDICATED ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER FROM WASHINGTON TO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN
PROXIMITY TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH, AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN,
AS SUPPORTED BY ECENS AND CMCE REFORECAST TEMPERATURES. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE ELEVATED ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA DURING THE 6-10 DAY
OUTLOOK PERIOD, BASED ON MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH, AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTH RELATED TO A NEARBY BERING SEA TROUGH. CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PEAK AT 70-80 PERCENT OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR OF ALASKA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED IN HAWAII WITH ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASING EL NINO SIGNATURE.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE WEST, ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
PREDICTED ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE INFLUX OF MONSOON MOISTURE FROM MEXICO.
FOR APPROXIMATELY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE, WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WESTERLIES ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE AVAILABLE PRECIPITATION TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES BENEATH
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING. IN ALASKA, NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE, DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING SEA. THE SLIGHT TILT FAVORING BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH SLOPE IS RELATED TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. FOR HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED BY
THE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE, IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL OF A DEVELOPING
TROPICAL CYCLONE SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1-5,
BASED ON REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS HEIGHT, TEMPERATURE, AND
PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND A RELATIVELY STABLE FLOW PATTERN AT THE 500-HPA LEVEL.
CONFIDENCE WOULD HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT HIGHER IF THERE WERE NOT SO MUCH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURE COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 18 - 24 2026
THE 0Z ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY DURING WEEK-2, THOUGH MOST OTHER
500-HPA HEIGHT CHANGES OVER NORTH AMERICA ARE RELATIVELY MINOR. THE MAJOR
LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE THE BROAD, ZONALLY-ELONGATED
RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS, WHICH DISPLACES THE
WESTERLIES TO NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS
DURING WEEK-2, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHEAST. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (70-80 PERCENT)
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS, AGAIN COLLOCATED WITH THE HIGHEST MEAN HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
MOSTLY FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA AND HAWAII, FOR THE SAME REASONS MENTIONED IN THE
6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE SECTION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
CONTINUED MOISTURE ACROSS THE WEST, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS, RELATED TO THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND THE INFLUX
OF MONSOON MOISTURE. IN THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION, THERE
IS A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION, CONSISTENT
WITH ANALOGS OF THE MANUAL BLEND AND THE PROXIMITY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
ODDS SLIGHTLY FAVOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA, LARGELY DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FOR MOST OF ALASKA
AND HAWAII,THE SAME REASONING FOR THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK APPLIES TO
WEEK-2, WARRANTING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1-5,
BASED ON REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS HEIGHT, TEMPERATURE, AND
PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND A RELATIVELY STABLE FLOW PATTERN AT THE 500-HPA LEVEL.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20170803 - 20240803 - 20160822 - 20250822 - 19930802
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20170803 - 20100817 - 20240803 - 20160819 - 20180722
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 16 - 20 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE B A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 18 - 24 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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