896
FXUS06 KWBC 131902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU AUGUST 13 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 19 - 23 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND
CANADIAN MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
GREATER DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND/OR MID-LEVEL TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE ALEUTIANS,
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS), AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
AND/OR MID-LEVEL RIDGING ARE DOMINANT ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS AND NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ALASKA. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS,
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE ISLANDS THEMSELVES.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS (EXCEPT FOR SMALL
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS WHERE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN PROXIMITY TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH) UNDER RIDGING AND
ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOLS. MAXIMUM CHANCES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
70-80 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, GENERALLY
COLLOCATED WITH THE HIGHEST MEAN HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE
ELEVATED ACROSS EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA DURING THE 6-10
DAY OUTLOOK PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS, WHILE
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA UNDER BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED IN HAWAII WITH ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASING EL NINO SIGNATURE.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE WEST, ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROUGH PREDICTED ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE INFLUX OF MONSOON MOISTURE FROM
MEXICO. WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS DUE TO A WEAK TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE AVAILABLE PRECIPITATION TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST BENEATH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING. IN ALASKA, NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS. FOR HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED BY THE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5, GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE STATISTICAL TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 21 - 27 2026
THE 0Z ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE ANOMALOUS TROUGH OVER THE
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY
DURING WEEK-2 AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THE MAJOR LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION FEATURE
CONTINUES TO BE THE BROAD, ZONALLY-ELONGATED RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS, WHICH DISPLACES THE WESTERLIES TO NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. WEAK
MID-LEVEL TROUGHS ARE STILL FORECAST NEAR THE WEST COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST. NEAR NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE HAWAII
ISLANDS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS
DURING WEEK-2, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (60-70 PERCENT) ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, APPROXIMATELY COLLOCATED WITH THE HIGHEST MEAN HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, WHILE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF MAINLAND ALASKA
AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY FAVORED
ACROSS HAWAII, FOR THE SAME REASONS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY
TEMPERATURE SECTION.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS, AND IS
RELATED TO THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND THE INFLUX OF MONSOON MOISTURE. IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS, THERE IS A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION, CONSISTENT WITH THE PROXIMITY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ODDS
SLIGHTLY FAVOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION,
FLORIDA, AND MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN, AND IOWA, IN LARGELY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FOR MOST OF ALASKA AND HAWAII, THE SAME REASONING FOR
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK APPLIES TO WEEK-2, WARRANTING ENHANCED
CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, BASED ON REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS HEIGHT, TEMPERATURE, AND
PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND A RELATIVELY STABLE FLOW PATTERN AT THE 500-HPA LEVEL.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20160819 - 20170805 - 20240804 - 20160824 - 20020801
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20160819 - 20170804 - 20240804 - 20130729 - 20160824
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 19 - 23 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 21 - 27 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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