822
FXUS01 KWBC 141856
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VALID 00Z SAT AUG 15 2026 - 00Z MON AUG 17 2026
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING THREAT
CONTINUES ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
A HIGHLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS U.S. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A BROAD WESTERN TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OVER SOUTH-EASTERN U.S. A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER WESTERN U.S. WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT THE
NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF WARM MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
DISTURBANCES. AT THE SURFACE, A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS,
SUPPORTING TRAINING AND BACK-BUILDING OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN
LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. WITH SATURATED SOIL
FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL AND ONGOING FLASH FLOODING, A MODERATE RISK
(LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST, WHILE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) HIGHLIGHTS PORTIONS
OF THE APPALACHIANS, OHIO VALLEY, AND MIDWEST THROUGH THE EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WHILE A BROAD MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4)
HIGHLIGHTS THE SOUTHEAST.
MUCH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ON SATURDAY, BUT A
PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD INTO
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE CHANCES FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND SEVERE THREAT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY, WHILE
ANOTHER ROUND OF FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC. WPC
HAS PLACED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. SPC HAS ALSO
HIGHLIGHTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SEVERE WIND GUST AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY, AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY, THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY
NORTHEASTWARD BUT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY, BRINGING
ANOTHER RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY, AND NORTHEAST WHILE
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF OHIO
VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC.
ACROSS THE WEST, THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO PORTION OF THE INTERIOR WEST, THE FOUR CORNERS, AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WITH THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH CAN LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN VULNERABLE
TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY BURN SCARS, SLOT CANYONS, AND URBANIZED AREAS.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DANGEROUS HEAT ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM, PROVIDING ONLY MINOR RELIEF. WITH THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES MAY REACH UP TO 115
DEGREES, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK LEVELS.
SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HIGH HEAT STRESS CAN LEAD TO
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
OUDIT
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