181
FOUS30 KWBC 170047
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
847 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
DAY 1
VALID 01Z MON AUG 17 2026 - 12Z MON AUG 17 2026
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST VIRGINIA...
01Z UPDATE...
PREVIOUS OUTLOOK STANDING UP WELL HEADING INTO THE EVENING WITH FEW
CHANGES OVERALL. CERTAINLY NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
MODERATE RISK AREA BASED ON LATE AFTERNOON RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY STILL SHOWING UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2 OR MORE INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ELEVATED BY THE
SET UP FOR REPEAT CONVECTION AND TRAINING OF CELLS. THERE WERE SOME
OTHER MINOR MODIFICATIONS BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS
ELSEWHERE BUT THE FORECAST REASONING WAS LARGELY UNCHANGED.
BANN
16Z UPDATE...
THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT FROM THE OVERNIGHT IS THE ADDITION OF A
SLIGHT RISK COVERING PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MO/SOUTHERN IL,
WHERE THE CAMS ARE SHOWING A NOTABLE SIGNAL FOR DEVELOPING STORMS
THIS EVENING SUPPORTED BY AN MCV MOVING ACROSS MISSOURI THAT WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH A DEEPENING POOL OF MOISTURE (PWS ~2.25 INCHES)
ALONG AN AXIS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW. BOTH THE HREF AND
REFS ARE SHOWING HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR 2+ INCHES WITHIN THE
PROPOSED SLIGHT RISK AREA.
FARTHER EAST, PULLED THE SLIGHT RISK WEST TO COVER A GREATER
PORTION OF SOUTHERN OHIO AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WHERE THE MODELS
HAVE NOT BEEN PERFORMING OVERLY WELL, BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING IN
THE NEAR-TERM. REFER TO WPC MPD #1068 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
ELSEWHERE, ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK ARE RELATIVELY
MINOR.
PEREIRA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
..OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
A COMPLEX, MULTI WAVE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC TODAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK IN THE ERO
CENTERED OVER WV, SURROUNDED BY A SLIGHT RISK EXTENDING EASTWARD
INTO PA, MD AND VA, AND A MARGINAL RISK EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY INTO MO.
AT 08Z, ONE MCV ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY TRAINING CONVECTION WAS
TRACKING EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST OH INTO WV AND SOUTHWEST PA. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRAVERSE PA, MD AND NORTHERN VA THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THIS AREA OF CONVECTION OUTRUNS THE
BETTER INSTABILITY POOL, OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY LESSEN...HOWEVER AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 2.25" WILL STILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITHIN
EMBEDDED CORES. ALTHOUGH HIGHER FFG EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND
WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD
EXCEEDANCE, A SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT SETTING UP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN FLANK (FROM NORTHERN VA INTO MD) COULD
SUPPORT SOME BACKBUILDING BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT, ANY TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING WILL
POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS URBAN AREAS.
BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE, THERMODYNAMIC RECOVERY WILL OCCUR AS A
SECONDARY MCV SHIFTS INTO OH CLOSER TO AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER OH, WV AND
WESTERN PA...SUPPORTED BY CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG AND PWS APPROACHING
2.2". WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE ACTIVITY
SOUTHEASTWARD, STRONG LOW LEVEL WESTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF BACKBUILDING
AND TRAINING.
A MODERATE RISK REMAINS CENTERED OVER WV, WHERE PERSISTENT, STRONG
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IMPINGING INTO THE COMPLEX TERRAIN RAISES
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC CONCERN. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE
PROBABLE...THE INITIAL MORNING ROUND PRIMARILY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.
THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z HREF AND
REFS...WITH THE REFS SHOWING HIGHER QPF AND FFG EXCEEDANCE
PROBABILITIES. GIVEN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW, HIGH PW VALUES, AND
ROBUST INSTABILITY, FAVOR SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE WETTER
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE
EXACT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND FFG EXCEEDANCE COVERAGE
TODAY/TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE...WITH CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOOD IMPACTS A POSSIBILITY.
THE SLIGHT RISK EXTENDING INTO PA/MD/VA ACCOUNTS FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN, BACKBUILDING, AND LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE NEAR A WEST TO EAST INSTABILITY GRADIENT THAT MAY HELP
FOCUS CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z HREF AND REFS EXPLICIT FFG
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES ARE MUTED (PROBABLY A REFLECTION OF HIGH
FFG AND QPF SPREAD OVER MULTIPLE ROUNDS), THE HIGH PW AIRMASS WILL
PROMOTE HIGH RAINFALL RATES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING. ALSO FFG MAY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS ROUNDS OF RAIN
MOVE ACROSS, AND THUS THINK THE LOW MODEL FFG EXCEEDANCE
PROBABILITIES MAY BE A BIT MISLEADING. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED, WOULD EXPECT THIS SETUP TO
RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THREAT, AND LOCALLY CONSIDERABLE
IMPACTS ARE A POSSIBILITY.
FURTHER WEST, A MARGINAL RISK COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE OH
VALLEY INTO MO, WHERE SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWARD
DROPPING COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO
AREAS WITH SATURATED SOILS AND LOWERED FFG.
..SOUTHWEST
A SLIGHT RISK IS MAINTAINED FROM NORTHEAST NM INTO SOUTHEAST CO,
WITH THE 00Z HIGH RES MODELS SUPPORTING MINIMAL CHANGES FROM CONTINUITY.
CONVECTION WILL FOCUS NEAR AND NORTH OF A FRONT, WHERE ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIGHT ENTRANCE JET SUPPORT. WHILE PW VALUES ARE ONLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE, AMPLE CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL
COMPENSATE, DRIVING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING FROM SLOW
MOVING STORMS AND CELL MERGERS.
CHENARD
DAY 2
VALID 12Z MON AUG 17 2026 - 12Z TUE AUG 18 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
20Z UPDATE...
FELT THE COMBINATION OF VERY MOIST SOILS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS WAS ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT
RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OHIO, WEST VIRGINIA, AND
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. A SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS IOWA AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
TOMORROW, INTERACTING WITH A POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE SETTLING SOUTH
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WHILE, WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL HEAVY AMOUNTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED, BOTH THE HREF AND REFS INDICATE 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY, WITH THE HREF SHOWING SOME GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA. AT 12Z, 3-HR FFGS RANGED FROM 0.25-1 INCH WITHIN MUCH OF THIS
AREA, WITH THE HREF AND REFS SHOWING PROBABILITIES FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THESE VALUES CLIMBING OVER 50 PERCENT LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
ELSEWHERE, MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
PEREIRA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
..OH/TN VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS
A SOUTHWARD DROPPING COLD FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION ON MONDAY. WHILE OVERALL STORM COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY JUST
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FROM KY
AND TN INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, ENHANCED BY LOCAL TERRAIN
UPSLOPE. A MARGINAL RISK IS MAINTAINED FOR ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING. NOTABLY, THE 00Z RRFS AND REFS HINT AT AN UPSTREAM MCV
MOVING INTO KY AND TN THAT COULD INCREASE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. HOWEVER,
GIVEN LIMITED GLOBAL MODEL SUPPORT, THE RISK TIER WILL BE HELD AT
MARGINAL PENDING A FULL SUITE OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE IN SUBSEQUENT
CYCLES.
..SOUTHWEST
A MARGINAL RISK REMAINS ON TRACK ACROSS MUCH OF NM AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AZ AND SOUTHERN CO. BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWS WILL
INTERACT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAPPED IN THE WEAK FLOW.
TERRAIN BASED INITIATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE AND CELL MERGERS LIKELY AS CONVECTION DRIFTS OFF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
..NE TO MN
THE MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD, NOW
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST SD AND FAR NORTHWEST
IA. FRONTAL FORCING COMBINED WITH A ROBUST INSTABILITY POOL OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET RAMP UP WILL
SUPPORT A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CENTERED ACROSS NE BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. RECENT HIGH RES MODELS, ALONG WITH THE AIFS AND
AIGFS, SHOW BETTER SPATIAL AGREEMENT FOCUSING THIS ACTIVITY OVER
NE, SUPPORTING THE MINOR SHIFT IN THE RISK AREA.
CHENARD
DAY 3
VALID 12Z TUE AUG 18 2026 - 12Z WED AUG 19 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
20Z UPDATE...
FOLLOWING THE GENERAL TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE, MADE A SMALL
SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE OUTLOOK AREAS EXTENDING FROM THE MID
AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST.
PEREIRA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SLIGHT RISK IS CENTERED OVER IA AND EXTENDS INTO ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KS, EASTERN NE, NORTHERN MO, AND NORTHWEST
IL. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SERVE AS
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING
THE DAY SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS LARGE SCALE FORCING AMPLIFIES AND THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS.
WHILE THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD
(LIMITING THE OVERALL DURATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD RISK), AN
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY POOL FEATURING CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG
AND ELEVATED PWS NEAR 1.75" WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEMS
FORWARD SPEED CAPS THE THREAT. GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE GENERAL AXIS WHICH REFLECTS A SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT FROM
CONTINUITY. GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TENDENCY FOR THESE SETUPS TO
TREND FURTHER SOUTHWEST WITH TIME, THE SLIGHT RISK BOUNDARY WAS
DRAWN A BIT BROADER TO THE SOUTHWEST TO ACCOMMODATE POTENTIAL
FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS.
CHENARD
DAY 4 AND DAY 5
VALID 12Z WED AUG 19 2026 - 12Z FRI AUG 21 2026
...THERE ARE MARGINAL RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL
PLAINS, OHIO VALLEY, AND MID ATLANTIC...
2030Z UPDATE...
THERE REMAINS TWO AREAS OF CONCERN FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING
THE PERIOD...WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST US TO PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES FOSTERING AN ENVIRONMENT
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EACH DAY
WHILE A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
HELP FOCUS CONVECTION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTWARD. ANY STORMS
AROUND OVER OR NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH
TO KEEP INSTANCES OF FLOODING ISOLATED OR PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED.
BANN
..DAY 4/WEDNESDAY
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING ACROSS CANADA WITH A STOUT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO A FANNING OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WITH AID FROM HIGH PRESSURE MOTIONING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IN WAKE OF A LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN
CANADA. THE FRONTAL POSITIONING BY MID-WEEK WILL LIKELY HAVE THE
COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH THE WESTERN EXTENSION LIKELY REACHING BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BETWEEN MO/AR. ENSEMBLE SPREAD
FRONTAL POSITIONING IS GENERALLY MORE LATITUDINAL LEADING TO SOME
BACK AND FORTH WITH THE POSITIONING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND
EVENTUAL IMPACTS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONSENSUS
WILL LIKELY SHIFT CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN FRONTAL POSITIONING AS
SURFACE RIDGING HAS BEEN GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING IN THE MEANS OVER
THE NORTHERN U.S. WHICH WOULD HELP PROPEL THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH,
MATCHING THE ML PLACEMENT AS NOTED VIA BOTH THE THETA_E GRADIENT
FORECAST, AS WELL AS THE MEAN SURFACE WIND DIRECTION OFF BOTH THE
AIGFS AND EC-AIFS OUTPUTS.
MAGNITUDE OF RAINFALL WILL BE SUBJECT TO SOME VARIABILITY AT THE
CURRENT LEAD AS WE WILL BE MISSING MORE VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THAT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE PROLIFIC QPF SIGNAL.
THAT SAID, INCREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT,
ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED HEAVY
RAIN SIGNALS WHICH ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP IN INDIVIDUAL
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUTS. GLOBALS HAVE A SMATTERING OF ELEVATED QPF
CLUSTERS WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THE FRONTAL FORECAST FROM EACH
MODEL, SO IT'S JUST A MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE MORE INTRICATE
DETAILS AS WE STEP FORWARD IN TIME. AT THIS POINT, THERE WAS ENOUGH
OF A SIGNAL TO MAINTAIN THE MRGL RISK INHERITED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DOWN INTO THE OHIO AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY'S WITH ONLY
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NECESSARY.
FURTHER WEST, THE WESTERN FRINGE OF OUR RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A
STEADY SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW CAPABLE OF PROVIDING
CONSISTENT MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL THETA_E ADVECTION OUT OF MEXICO
AND TROPICS, UP THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE FRONT
RANGE. WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE ACTIVE WITHIN THE TERRAIN FROM
SOUTHEAST AZ UP THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL NM INTO THE CO FRONT RANGE
LEADING TO SOME SCATTERED HEAVY QPF SIGNATURES EMBEDDED IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR EACH ZONE AND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO. STILL NOT
ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL, MAGNITUDE-WISE TO DEVIATE FROM THE INHERITED
MRGL RISK, BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY IF THERE ARE ANY TARGETED
UPGRADE POTENTIALS LYING WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OR
EASTERN CO.
..DAY 5/THURSDAY
OUR AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MAKE HEADWAY THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC EARLY THURSDAY WITH A ROUND OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO ENSUE
WITH THE FRONTAL ARRIVAL. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE HAS ALSO BEEN HINTED
OFF THE TIDEWATER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD
ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT LOCALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
DELMARVA INTO THE VA TIDEWATER. THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON THIS
PARTICULAR FEATURE, BUT IT HAS SOME MERIT WITH THE RECENT ML
OUTPUTS PINPOINTING A MAXIMA IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY. IN ANY CASE,
ELEVATED PWATS ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL APPROACH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THOSE
ABOVE AREAS, EXTENDING BACK INTO VA THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY'S. COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING SUBSTANTIALLY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THANKS TO RESISTANCE FROM THE SURFACE RIDGE POSITIONED
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SETUP
WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE
FRONT, AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH A RICH AIRMASS PROVIDING NECESSARY
BUOYANCY TO ENTICE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR YET ANOTHER DAY IN
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. A MRGL RISK IS FORECAST WITHIN AREAS WHERE
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT, OR AT LEAST SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL TRAINING/SLOW-MOVING CELLS.
THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE FRONT RANGE REMAINS ACTIVE, ONCE AGAIN, AS
THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH DOMINATES THE PATTERN AND PROVIDES GENERAL
PERSISTENCE IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, ALONG WITH BUOYANT
AIR BEING USHERED POLEWARD. A MRGL RISK WAS ADDED TO THE AREA IN
QUESTION DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY, BUT THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RISK
IS FURTHER BACK INTO AZ AS THERE IS A GREATER SIGNAL FOR MOISTURE
GETTING PUSHED FURTHER WEST TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE SCHEME BACK
OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SURROUNDING TERRAIN.
KLEEBAUER
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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