117
FXUS06 KWBC 221928
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SAT AUGUST 22 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 28 - SEP 01, 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS PREDICT A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE
HIGHER LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY AND A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE CONUS. STRONG ANOMALOUS 500-HPA RIDGES
ARE FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA WHILE ANOMALOUS
TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND WELL NORTH OF
THE ALASKA MAINLAND. ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES, ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS FORECAST
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WHILE A TROUGH OF TYPICAL STRENGTH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, PEAKING IN STRENGTH BETWEEN DAYS 6
AND 8. MEANWHILE THE TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR END OF THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM, THE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA,
SANDWICHED BETWEEN RIDGES TO ITS EAST AND WEST AND TROUGHS TO ITS NORTH AND
SOUTH. HOWEVER, STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE THERE. GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII DURING THE PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS, UNDERNEATH
PREDICTED NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH
(GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND VICINITY, NEAR THE CENTER OF THE PREDICTED ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. IN CONTRAST, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED
FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARBY TROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE GREAT LAKES, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH. MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
ALASKA TILTS COLD, UNDERNEATH ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, DUE TO
ANOMALOUS RIDGING. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, UNDERNEATH SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. HAWAII IS
LIKELY TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL, AS SSTS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE ARE
CURRENTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPANSIVE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FAVORS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AHEAD OF A TROUGH FORECAST
OFFSHORE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
ADJACENT AREAS AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ARE PREDICTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD
OVER THE EAST COAST, INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. A WEAK AREA OF MODESTLY
ENHANCED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS INDICATED NEAR THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF THE NORTH AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA, ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TAIL END OF A WEAKENING SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA UNDERNEATH PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW.
HOWEVER, NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF THE MAINLAND, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND
PREDICTED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ONLY MODESTLY FAVORED FOR HAWAII, AS TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF TROPICAL STORM MOKE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE TEMPERATURE PATTERN OFFSET BY
CONFLICTING PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 30 - SEP 05, 2026
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, STRONG RIDGING OVER THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY, POTENTIALLY ALLOWING A TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE MAINLAND
TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER, DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO PERSIST. FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH, THE TROUGH OVER THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST WELL INTO WEEK-2 BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING IN PLACE TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD, BEFORE WEAKENING CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL STRENGTH TOWARD THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST IS
FORECAST TO MODESTLY STRENGTHEN NEAR THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. NEAR NORMAL
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS HAWAII.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
LOWER 48 STATES AS 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS MOST AREAS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE
SOUTHWEST DUE TO PERSISTENT RIDGING. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS, DUE TO NEARBY TROUGHS. MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA TILTS COLD, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED TROUGHING AS A RIDGE OVER THE ALEUTIANS WEAKENS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND, AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE ALEUTIANS UNDERNEATH THE
WEAKENING RIDGE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII AS SSTS
NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE ARE LARGELY ABOVE NORMAL.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL REGARDING THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY DUE TO WEAK OR CONFLICTING GUIDANCE. TELECONNECTIONS FROM
NEARBY MID-LEVEL FEATURES WERE UTILIZED TO INFORM THE FORECAST, PARTICULARLY
FROM THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND THE TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NEAR
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. COLLECTIVELY THIS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF THE SOUTHWEST, CORN BELT, AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE NORTHEASTERN
AND NORTHWESTERN CONUS TILT WET, ASSOCIATED WITH NEARBY TROUGHS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA UNDERNEATH MEAN CYCLONIC
MID-LEVEL FLOW. A MODEST TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED
ACROSS HAWAII REFLECTING A BALANCE BETWEEN A PREDICTED TYPICAL TRADE WIND
REGIME AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE TROPICS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
WEAK OR CONFLICTING GUIDANCE AMONG PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
SEPTEMBER 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20100805 - 20220810 - 20100817 - 20240831 - 20160820
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20100802 - 20190904 - 20160824 - 20240830 - 20240805
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 28 - SEP 01, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA A N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 30 - SEP 05, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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