353
FOUS30 KWBC 230051
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
851 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
DAY 1
VALID 01Z SUN AUG 23 2026 - 12Z SUN AUG 23 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE
ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN, ALONG WITH
THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...
01Z UPDATE: NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EASTERN CONUS OUTLOOK
AREAS. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS NEGATIVE DCAPE/DT
FOLLOWING SUNSET WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF CONVECTION
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THOUGH FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
FORCING (INCREASING UPPER DIFLUENCE) AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT BECOMES MORE NEUTRALLY-NEGATIVELY TILTED WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION VIA MULTIPLE QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY GIVEN THE WARM WATER
TEMPERATURES (>27C). WE DID REMOVE THE SLIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE GIVEN THE SANDY SOILS AND MORE LIMITED RISK FOR CELL
TRAINING AFTER 01-02Z.
IN THE WESTERN U.S., THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS A MONSOONAL
PATTERN PERSISTS WITH BROAD UPPER-RIDGING OVERHEAD. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING MARGINAL RISK, MOSTLY TO
ADJUST THE COVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BASED
ON THE LATEST 12Z CAM GUIDANCE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR
GREATER STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THIS REGION WITH A HIGHER CHANCE FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE EXPECTED RAIN
RATES (~ 0.5" OR SO PER HOUR) AND AT LEAST MODEST EASTWARD MOVEMENT
AWAY FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO LIMIT DURATION, STILL EXPECT THAT ANY
FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL REMAIN ISOLATED.
HURLEY/PUTNAM
DAY 2
VALID 12Z SUN AUG 23 2026 - 12Z MON AUG 24 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL US AND THE SOUTHWEST...
..2030Z UPDATE
A MARGINAL RISK WAS ADDED ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE ERIE FROM
NORTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN NEW YORK DUE TO EXPECTED LAKE-
ENHANCED SHOWERS AFTER AN INITIAL ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TODAY. THE 12Z CAM GUIDANCE NOW AVAILABLE THROUGH THE FULL DAY 2
PERIOD SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF 2-4" OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK.
ELSEWHERE, SOME MODEST AREAL MODIFICATIONS WERE NEEDED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STORMS AND WITH MONSOONAL ACTIVITY OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. TWO MAIN GENESIS LOCATIONS WERE NOTED IN THE PLAINS
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK: THE FIRST TO THE NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS
AND THE SECOND TO THE SOUTH OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE 12Z CAMS WERE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH STORM COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS AND THEN PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY, LIKELY DUE TO SUPPORT FROM A MORE
PROMINENT SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME OF THE CAMS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
TOTALS IN THE 2-4"+ RANGE WHICH COULD RESULT IN MORE THAN JUST A
FEW ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE STORMS AS WELL AS UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE DEGREE TO WHICH THEY ORGANIZE/GROW UPSCALE AND EVENTUALLY
TRACK, HAVE MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR NOW.
PUTNAM
..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
..MIDWEST
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH THEN BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE OZARKS. EVEN THOUGH FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THE 850 MB FLOW MAINTAINS A PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES FROM THE GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO
THE EASTERN DAKOTA WHICH ROUGHLY DEFINES THE RIDGE IN THE THETAE
FIELD TO HELP FUEL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. AND GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR REPEAT CONVECTION...MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL RISK
AREA EVEN THOUGH INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.
..WESTERN US
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE AND ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND ROCKIES.
BANN
DAY 3
VALID 12Z MON AUG 24 2026 - 12Z TUE AUG 25 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN US AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
..2030Z UPDATE
ONLY VERY MINIMAL AREAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED
MARGINAL RISK OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DUE TO PERSISTANT MONSOON
ACTIVITY AND CONTINUED RISK OF SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. AS
WAS NOTED BELOW, THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE MARGINAL RISK
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDED DOWNWARD ON QPF AMOUNTS/COVERAGE. THE RAIN THAT FALLS
DURING THE DAY 3 PERIOD CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY TIED TO
ONGOING, POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION FROM THE DAY 2 PERIOD MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE RISK AREA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON
STORM COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME FRAME, HAVE DECIDED TO
MAINTAIN THE MARGINAL RISK FOR NOW AT LEAST UNTIL MORE GUIDANCE
FROM THE CAMS COME IN.
PUTNAM
..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
..WESTERN US
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST-SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A HIGH CONTRIBUTING TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
WILL RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN US INTO THE ROCKIES. ONLY CHANGES TO THE MARGINAL
RISK AREA WERE MINOR AND LARGELY BASED ON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
FIELD.
..LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL RISK AREA WHICH WAS INTRODUCED ON FRIDAY
AS A CORRIDOR OF INCREASING INSTABILITY PERSISTS DUE TO A
PERSISTENT CONFLUENT FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE. AT THIS POINT...MODEL
GUIDANCE WOULD TEND TO SUGGEST MORE OF AN URBAN CONCERN.
BANN
DAY 4 AND DAY 5
VALID 12Z TUE AUG 25 2026 - 12Z THU AUG 27 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...
2000Z UPDATE: MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE DAYS 4-5 EROS BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS (INCLUDING THE LATEST AI GFS AND ECMWF
RUNS). STILL A GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN THE QPF GUIDANCE, INCLUDING
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMC ENSEMBLE QPF EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES,
AND AS SUCH DID NOT MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE MARGINAL RISK
AREAS.
HURLEY
..SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK BOTH DAYS COVERING PORTIONS OF ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS INTO PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED, DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND EAST OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE PLAINS MIDWEEK AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE
WEST MOVES OFF OF THE TOP OF THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND INTERACTS
WITH A POOL OF DEEPENING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH THE GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO
PRESENT SOME SIGNAL FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS, A MARGINAL RISK
WAS MAINTAINED OVER MUCH OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA SOUTH OF THE
SANDHILLS ON DAY 4.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON DAY 5 FROM THE ROCKIES
INTO THE PLAINS AS THE SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO
MOVE OUT OF THE WEST. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS FARTHER
SOUTH, STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
..SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS
MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK COVERING PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST ON DAY 4 AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY SLIDING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION INTERACTS WITH A POOL OF DEEPENING MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WHILE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DIRECTS A
SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES INTO THE REGION, THE FOOTPRINT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXPAND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AND EXTEND BACK INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON DAY 5.
PEREIRA
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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