725
FXUS06 KWBC 241902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON AUGUST 24 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 30 - SEP 03, 2026
THE 0Z GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD. INITIALLY, ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FAVORED ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN WITH TIME, WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM THE
ALEUTIANS TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, TROUGHING IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA AND NORTHWESTERN ALASKA INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. DESPITE THE TRANSITIONING
PATTERN FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC, THE 6-10 DAY MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND
DEPICTS BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS INDICATED ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS,
GENERALLY MATCHING THE EARLY- TO MID-PERIOD PATTERN. TO THE EAST OF THE
ROCKIES, THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY BROAD RIDGING,
WITH A +180 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HUDSON BAY AND +30 METER ANOMALIES EXTENDING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. DOWNSTREAM, WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS PREDICTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST, INTERIOR WEST, CENTRAL, EAST-CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT) OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND ITS CORRESPONDING REFORECAST TOOL SUPPORT HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTENDING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST, THE
GEFS AND CANADIAN ARE ON THE COOLER SIDE, AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MORE
TROUGHING, AND ALSO ALIGNS WITH TELECONNECTION ANALYSIS ON THE POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY CENTER NEAR HUDSON BAY. THEREFORE, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. TROUGHING INITIALLY NEAR THE WEST COAST FAVORS
INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH STRONG
SUPPORT FROM THE REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED TOOLS, AS WELL AS THE ANALOGS.
ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, WITH
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA, AND
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA DUE TO A SLOW PROGRESSION
OF RIDGING TO THE EAST AND HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA LATER IN THE
PERIOD ALONG WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH THE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION.
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST COAST FAVORS ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT
INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS, WITH ODDS EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS ARE WEAK UNDERNEATH RIDGING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS,
WITH NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND
SOUTHEAST. FARTHER TO THE NORTH, TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES OR FRONTAL SYSTEMS
PROPAGATING OVERTOP THE RIDGE AND ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NORTHEAST LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS, INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, NORTHEAST, AND
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. FORECAST TOOLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING ELEVATED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA TIED TO
INCREASING TROUGHING AND ONSHORE FLOW. A CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS
FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC TIED TO EL NINO, WITH CHANCES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION INCREASED OVER HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, OFFSET BY WEAK
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS ACROSS THE CONUS AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENSION
OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE NORTHEAST.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 01 - 07 2026
DURING WEEK-2, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CANADA, WITH A +120 METER
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER TO THE NORTH OF HUDSON BAY IN THE MANUAL HEIGHT
BLEND. TO THE SOUTH, A WEAKENING OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS DEPICTED
ACROSS THE CONUS AS THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL, WITH NEAR-NORMAL
HEIGHTS INDICATED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS IN THE MANUAL BLEND. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE LESS AMPLIFIED OUTLOOK, WITH A LARGE
VARIATION IN HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC, WHICH LEADS TO HIGHER
UNCERTAINTY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CONUS. WEAK NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
INDICATED IN THE WEEK-2 MANUAL BLEND ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE
ALEUTIANS GIVEN GREATER CONFIDENCE EARLIER IN THE PERIOD, WITH NEAR-NORMAL
HEIGHTS FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (ABOVE 70 PERCENT) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AS IN THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK, THERE CONTINUES TO BE MORE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES FAVORING A COOLER OUTCOME THAN
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, RESULTING IN A NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WHILE
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
LIKELY AS TROUGHING WEAKENS AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXPAND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA LEADING TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE WEST COAST. TIED WITH THIS
RIDGING, ALONG WITH INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW, WEAK PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH INCREASED
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA DUE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE FROM TROUGHING. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS HAWAII GIVEN CONTINUED STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION
TOOL.
THE MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS LATER IN WEEK-2 LEADS TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH WEAK SIGNALS FOR COHERENT PRECIPITATION
IN THE MODELS. ENHANCED TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
FAVORS ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHWEST EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE IS
MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EAST WHERE THE ANALOGS INDICATE A VERY DRY SIGNAL,
ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICAL TOOLS CONTINUE TO TILT TOWARD ENHANCED ODDS OF NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE A LARGE REGION OF NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS DEPICTED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED TOOLS SUPPORT INCREASED ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALASKA TIED TO TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE AND ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW. AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PACIFIC TIED TO EL NINO SUPPORTS ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DESPITE
SOME AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD, AN EMERGING
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AND WEAK SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION LOWERS
CONFIDENCE.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
SEPTEMBER 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240907 - 20250822 - 20220811 - 20170804 - 20240901
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240904 - 20250906 - 20220810 - 20240830 - 20240803
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 30 - SEP 03, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 01 - 07 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N A NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN A N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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