429
FXUS01 KWBC 250535
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
134 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VALID 12Z TUE AUG 25 2026 - 12Z THU AUG 27 2026
...DANGEROUS RECORD-BREAKING HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK...
...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE ROCKIES/PLAINS, UPPER
MIDWEST, AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. INTO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN AN ABNORMAL HAZARDOUS HEAT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS OF 100-110 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHILE
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL REACH UP TO 115. WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES PROVIDING LIMITED RELIEF, HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS MAY
INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT PROPER HYDRATION AND
ADEQUATE COOLING. FURTHERMORE, WIDESPREAD MAJOR TO EXTREME
HEATRISK IS FORECASTED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH LATE WEEK. SEE THE LATEST KEY MESSAGES
LINKED AT THE BOTTOM OF THE DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
FARTHER NORTH, THE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FROM THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION, THAT MAY LEAD
TO FLASH-FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH/CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY, AND SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
EASTWARD.
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES/PLAINS, MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND INTERACT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY LEAD TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO POSE ISOLATED
FLASH-FLOODING CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY OVER TERRAIN AND AREAS WITH
WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. FATHER EAST, INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
PERSISTENT GULF MOISTURE ALONG A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SUPPORT REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THEREFORE, THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH-FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
OUDIT
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
EXTREME HEAT KEY MESSAGES AVAILABLE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/KEY_MESSAGES/LATESTKEYMESSAGE_1.PNG
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