765
FXUS06 KWBC 251902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE AUGUST 25 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 31 - SEP 04, 2026
THE 0Z GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN
MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN GREATER DUE
TO RECENT MODEL SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS). THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME, WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING
SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS INDICATED ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS.
TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES, THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED
BY BROAD RIDGING, WITH A +180 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER SITUATED
JUST TO THE NORTH OF HUDSON BAY AND +30 METER ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-LATITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CONUS. DOWNSTREAM, WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS PREDICTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
(GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT) OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, SUPPORTED BY
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. TROUGHING INITIALLY NEAR THE
WEST COAST FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA UNDER ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS,
WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH THE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION.
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST COAST FAVORS ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT
INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS, WITH ODDS EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS ARE WEAK UNDERNEATH RIDGING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS,
WITH NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND
SOUTHEAST (EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA WHERE SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED). FARTHER TO THE NORTH, TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES OR
FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROPAGATING OVERTOP THE RIDGE AND ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE NORTHEAST LEAD TO SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY,
NORTHEAST, AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. FORECAST TOOLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
ALASKA TIED TO INCREASING TROUGHING AND ONSHORE FLOW. A CONTINUED ACTIVE
PATTERN REMAINS FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC TIED TO EL
NINO, WITH CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION INCREASED OVER HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, OFFSET BY WEAK
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS ACROSS THE CONUS AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENSION
OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE NORTHEAST.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 02 - 08 2026
DURING WEEK-2, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CANADA, WITH A +90 METER
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER TO THE NORTH OF HUDSON BAY IN THE MANUAL HEIGHT
BLEND. TO THE SOUTH, A WEAKENING OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS DEPICTED
ACROSS THE CONUS AS THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL, WITH NEAR-NORMAL
HEIGHTS INDICATED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS IN THE MANUAL BLEND. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE LESS AMPLIFIED OUTLOOK, WITH A LARGE
VARIATION IN HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC, WHICH LEADS TO HIGHER
UNCERTAINTY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CONUS. WEAK NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
INDICATED IN THE WEEK-2 MANUAL BLEND ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE
ALEUTIANS GIVEN GREATER CONFIDENCE EARLIER IN THE PERIOD, WITH NEAR-NORMAL
HEIGHTS FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (ABOVE 70 PERCENT) ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND ADJACENT AREAS FOR THE
PERIOD AS A WHOLE, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS LIKELY AS TROUGHING WEAKENS AND
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA LEADING TO HEIGHT
RISES ALONG THE WEST COAST. TIED WITH THIS RIDGING, ALONG WITH INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW, WEAK PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA DUE TO GREATER INFLUENCE FROM
TROUGHING. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII GIVEN CONTINUED
STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THE MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS LATER IN WEEK-2 LEADS TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH WEAK SIGNALS FOR COHERENT PRECIPITATION
IN THE MODELS. ENHANCED TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
FAVORS ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED OVER THE NORTHEAST DUE TO
A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EAST WHERE THE ANALOGS INDICATE A VERY DRY SIGNAL, ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICAL
TOOLS CONTINUE TO TILT TOWARD ENHANCED ODDS OF NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE A LARGE REGION OF NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
DEPICTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED
TOOLS SUPPORT INCREASED ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALASKA TIED
TO TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW. AN
ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC TIED TO EL NINO SUPPORTS
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DESPITE
SOME AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD, AN EMERGING
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AND WEAK SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION LOWERS
CONFIDENCE.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
SEPTEMBER 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240908 - 20250822 - 20150825 - 20090831 - 20220812
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240907 - 20250822 - 20250907 - 19970820 - 20220811
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 31 - SEP 04, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 02 - 08 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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