571
FXUS01 KWBC 262028
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
427 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
VALID 00Z THU AUG 27 2026 - 00Z SAT AUG 29 2026
...DANGEROUS RECORD-BREAKING HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST,
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...
...FLASH FLOODING THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGING HOLDING ON
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S AND MAINTAINING THE EXTREME HEAT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
INTO THE 70S AND 80S AND BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
ACROSS THE EAST, A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE I-95
CORRIDOR TOMORROW. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER BEHIND THE FRONT AND
BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE LOW 80S AND UPPER 70S AND
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S, WITH ISOLATED AREAS REACHING BETWEEN
100-115 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST. RECORD-BREAKING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT RECOVERY FROM THE HEAT, WHICH MAY RESULT
IN HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES FOR THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND
HYDRATION. THEREFORE, WIDESPREAD MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS, NEW MEXICO, ARIZONA,
AND CALIFORNIA. SEE THE LATEST KEY MESSAGES LINKED AT THE BOTTOM
OF THE DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TOMORROW FROM WASHINGTON D.C. NORTHWARDS TO THE HUDSON VALLEY. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
MOREOVER, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FROM BALTIMORE TO NEW YORK CITY METROS WITH A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLOOD
WATCHES IN EFFECT.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON THURSDAY, PROXIMITY TO A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS
THE GULF WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ABUNDANT THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TOWARDS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. A SLIGHT RISK EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING FOR
MOSTLY LOCALIZED URBAN AREAS SUCH AS NEW ORLEANS AND MOBILE. THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY WITH A FRONT AND LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT PROMOTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE FLASH FLOODING EXTENT WITH THE HIGHER FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL ACCORDING TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF WET MICROBURSTS, TYPICAL OF SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS.
MEANWHILE, CONTINUED MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT DAILY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND ROCKIES.
FOR THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON, THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO ORGANIZED SLOW-MOVING STORMS, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS,
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO MAY FORM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
BRINGING ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND ACCOMPANIED LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
OUDIT/WILDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
EXTREME HEAT KEY MESSAGES AVAILABLE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/KEY_MESSAGES/LATESTKEYMESSAGE_1.PNG
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