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FXUS06 KWBC 271932
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU AUGUST 27 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 02 - 06 2026
THE 0Z ECENS, 0Z CMCE, AND 6Z GEFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING IMPORTANT
DISTINCTIONS IN THEIR PREDICTION OF THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE GEFS AND ECENS FORECAST A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN TODAY, WHEREAS THE CMCE PREDICTS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). THE GEFS AND ECENS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
FORECASTING MID-LEVEL TROUGHS AND SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
THE BERING SEA/ADJACENT NORTH PACIFIC AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS,
WITH A WEAK TROUGH INDICATED OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE TWO MODELS NOTED
ABOVE ALSO PREDICT HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGES AND LARGE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC POLEWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ALASKA
(ECENS) AND ALL OF ALASKA (GEFS). ANOTHER STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTERIOR EASTERN CONUS, WITH
THE GREATEST HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES SITUATED OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FULL-LATITUDE RIDGE ARE FORECAST OVER AND EAST OF NORTHEASTERN HUDSON BAY, WITH
UNCALIBRATED ANOMALIES NEAR 150 METERS. THE CMCE DIFFERS PRIMARILY BY
PREDICTING A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN CONUS, AND WEAK TO MODERATE
(UP TO +60 METER) POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE CMCE ALSO FORECASTS AN
UNSEASONABLY WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN
COMPARISON TO THE GEFS AND ECENS SOLUTIONS. THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF THE
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND WEIGHTING WAS ASSIGNED TO THE ECENS AND GEFS TODAY, AS THEY
APPEAR MORE REASONABLE. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS CONSIDERED MODERATE TODAY,
EMPHASIZING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CIRCULATION PATTERN. FOR HAWAII, NEAR NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
(80-90 PERCENT) OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOLS. TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS NEAR THE WEST COAST FAVORS
INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS FAR EAST AS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA UNDER RISING 500-HPA
HEIGHTS (RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY), WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ELEVATED
SLIGHTLY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA, RELATED TO RESIDUAL TROUGHING. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH THE AUTOMATED
FORECAST.
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST COAST FAVORS ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE WEST, WITH MAXIMUM ODDS OF 60-70 PERCENT ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO, WHICH
WOULD BE GREATLY BENEFICIAL IN THE MITIGATION OF ONGOING WILDFIRES SPREAD OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER AREA OF FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
DEPICTED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC, RELATED TO DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL
CONUS AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN MARITIMES. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION RISE TO 40-50 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DEFICITS HAVE ACCUMULATED (2+
INCHES) OVER THE PAST 30- TO 45-DAYS AND WHERE LITTLE RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. FARTHER NORTH, MOST OF ALASKA IS FAVORED TO RECEIVE ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION DUE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH. THE EXCEPTION IS FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, WHERE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED DOWNSTREAM OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE CREST. A CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS FORECAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC TIED TO EL NINO, WITH CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION INCREASED OVER HAWAII. WITHIN THE NEXT 7-DAYS, THERE IS A HIGH
(90-100 PERCENT) CHANCE OF THREE SEPARATE AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING INTO TROPICAL CYCLONES. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT HAWAIIAN
RESIDENTS REMAIN UPDATED ON ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENTS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECENS (BUT NOT WITH THE CMCE) REGARDING
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST TEMPERATURE TOOLS,
AND INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN PRECIPITATION SIGNALS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 04 - 10 2026
DURING WEEK-2, THE GEFS AND ECENS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN, WHILE THE CMCE CONTINUES WITH
ITS FORECAST OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. THE PRIMARY DRIVERS OF THE MEAN
CIRCULATION ARE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND THE STATE OF ALASKA, AND A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER ANOMALOUS
RIDGE CENTERED NEAR BAFFIN ISLAND, CANADA. OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES, THE GEFS
AND ECENS PREDICT A WEAK TO MODERATE (UP TO 60 METERS BELOW OR ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY) TROUGH-RIDGE- TROUGH PATTERN. YESTERDAY, IT LOOKED AS IF THE
EAST-CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WAS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN, BUT TODAY'S GEFS AND
ECENS RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THAT SCENARIO, FAVORING THE CONTINUATION OF
EXTREME HEAT OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ONCE AGAIN, THE
MAJOR WEIGHTING IN THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND WAS GIVEN TO THE ECENS AND GEFS.
NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (70-80 PERCENT)
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST, AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL MONTANA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE REASONING BEHIND THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ACROSS
THE CONUS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT FOR THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD. IN ALASKA,
SLIGHT TILTS IN THE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PATTERN ARE FAVORED; WITH BELOW NORMAL
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE TIED TO NEARBY TROUGHING, AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE
ASSOCIATED WITH NEARBY RIDGING. THE MINIMAL TILTS IN THE ODDS ARE DUE TO
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED IN HAWAII.
THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES, RELATED TO THE
PRESENCE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE MOISTURE
REACHING THE SOUTHWEST COULD BE TIED TO ONE OR TWO GULF SURGES INITIATED BY
PREDICTED TROPICAL CYCLONES EXPECTED TO PASS BY THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. RESIDUAL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS DEPICTED OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND, CLOSE TO THE VICINITY OF AN OFFSHORE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE, MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO RECEIVE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF ALASKA AND ALL OF HAWAII, FOR THE SAME REASONS NOTED IN THE EARLIER
6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION SECTION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5,
PRIMARILY BASED ON UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN AND
ESPECIALLY THE WIDE ARRAY OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS AS INDICATED BY THE OBJECTIVE TOOLS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
SEPTEMBER 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240908 - 20150825 - 20250821 - 20240821 - 19970822
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240908 - 20250822 - 20150825 - 19970820 - 20120825
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 02 - 06 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 04 - 10 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A N RHODE IS A A
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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