135
FXUS01 KWBC 280727
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
326 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VALID 12Z FRI AUG 28 2026 - 12Z SUN AUG 30 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
BOUNDARY CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE-RICH AIR AND THE NEARBY FRONT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, WHEN A REINFORCING BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN THE FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH A STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MOREOVER, MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL HELP PRODUCE RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
EXTREME HEAT KEY MESSAGES AVAILABLE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/KEY_MESSAGES/LATESTKEYMESSAGE_1.PNG
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