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FXUS06 KWBC 281953
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI AUGUST 28 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 03 - 07 2026
THE 0Z CMCE ENSEMBLE SOLUTION HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH
THE 6Z GEFS AND 0Z ECENS SOLUTIONS ON THE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN
ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL THREE MODEL
ENSEMBLES FORECAST AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN TODAY, WHICH FEATURES MID-LEVEL TROUGHS
OVER THE BERING SEA AND ADJACENT NORTHERN PACIFIC, NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THESE MODEL ENSEMBLES ALSO PREDICT HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS RIDGES AND LARGE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL
PACIFIC POLEWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ALASKA, AND OVER NORTHEASTERN
CANADA. THIS LATTER FEATURE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS) AND CONNECTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS. THE PREDICTED LOCATION OF THE MAXIMUM 500-HPA HEIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (~592-DM) RANGES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
ALABAMA, WITH THE GEFS SOLUTION BEING FARTHEST EAST AND THE ECENS BEING
FARTHEST WEST. THIS INDICATES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR WEST THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL GET. NEAR
NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ENSEMBLE SPREAD
REMAINS FAIRLY MODERATE TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO LONG WAVE AMPLITUDE.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
(80-90 PERCENT) OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOLS. TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS NEAR THE WEST COAST FAVORS
INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL MONTANA
AND AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA UNDER RISING 500-HPA
HEIGHTS, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ELEVATED SLIGHTLY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA, RELATED TO RESIDUAL TROUGHING. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH THE AUTOMATED FORECAST.
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST COAST FAVORS ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE WEST, WITH MAXIMUM ODDS OF 60-70 PERCENT ACROSS
INLAND AREAS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO, WHICH WOULD BE GREATLY BENEFICIAL IN THE MITIGATION OF ONGOING
WILDFIRES DISPERSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS TO THE GREAT LAKES,
NORTHEAST AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC, RELATED TO DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
MEAN FLOW. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION RISE TO 40-50 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DEFICITS HAVE ACCUMULATED (2+ INCHES) OVER THE PAST
30- TO 45-DAYS AND WHERE LITTLE RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.
FARTHER NORTH, MOST OF ALASKA IS FAVORED TO RECEIVE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
DUE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH. THE EXCEPTION IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHERE NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE
AXIS. A CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL PACIFIC TIED TO EL NINO, WITH CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
INCREASED OVER HAWAII. ABOUT 5-6 DAYS FROM TODAY (I.E. LATER IN WEEK-1), THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PREDICTS TROPICAL STORM LOWELL (CURRENTLY NEAR 132.8W
AND 12.5 N) MAY BECOME A HURRICANE AS MOST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
LOWELL IS HEADED SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER
OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT INDICATE THE SYSTEM MAY MOVE NORTHWARD MUCH CLOSER TO
HAWAII. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK, AND THEREFORE POTENTIAL
RELATED IMPACTS, IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT HAWAIIAN RESIDENTS REMAIN UPDATED ON
THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER REGARDING LOWELL.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
ALL THREE MODEL ENSEMBLES COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE PATTERNS, OFFSET BY SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS AMONG THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 05 - 11 2026
DURING WEEK-2, THERE ARE INCREASING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OVER
THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE CENTERED
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA, WITH THE 0Z ECENS RETROGRADING A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE BERING SEA. THERE IS ALSO A
GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MODEL ENSEMBLES OF THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE CENTERED
IN THE APPROXIMATE VICINITY OF BAFFIN ISLAND, CANADA. THE 6Z GEFS AND 0Z ECENS
AGREE THAT THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ANOMALOUS RIDGE
NEAR BAFFIN ISLAND EXTEND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, AND
CONNECT TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE 0Z CMCE DIFFERS BY DISCONNECTING THE
BAFFIN ISLAND ANOMALOUS RIDGE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND REFOCUSING THE
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. IN TERMS OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHS, THE THREE DESCRIBED
IN THE PREVIOUS 6-10 DAY SECTION PERSIST, THOUGH WEAKEN. NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS MODERATE TO HIGH
TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WEST COAST AREAS.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS, AND OVER AN INCREASING LARGE PART OF THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
WEST COAST TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN. MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE 70-80 PERCENT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND WIDESPREAD POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ADJACENT AREAS, AS INDICATED BY THE CONSOLIDATION AND AUTOMATED TEMPERATURE
TOOLS. DESPITE A FORECAST COOL-DOWN, SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION, SPARING
REGIONAL AGRICULTURE FROM FROST AND/OR A DAMAGING FREEZE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
A FREEZE ARE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST. IN ALASKA, MOSTLY NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED, GIVEN THE PREDICTED WEAKENING OF THE MEAN
TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA, AND DESPITE SOME TOOLS FORECASTING A SLIGHT TILT
TOWARDS MORE EXPANSIVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE EARLIER 6-10
DAY PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THE WIDESPREAD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
INCLUDE A MINIMAL TILT TOWARDS RELATIVE COLD OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE MAINLAND, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA ASSOCIATED
WITH A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED IN HAWAII.
THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL STATES, RELATED TO THE PRESENCE OF THE WESTERN
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE MOISTURE REACHING THE
SOUTHWEST COULD BE THE RESULT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE (WHICH IS YET TO FORM BUT
PREDICTED BY SOME MODELS) PASSING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND INITIATING A GULF
SURGE LATE IN WEEK-2, BUT THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. RESIDUAL ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS DEPICTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST, CLOSE TO THE VICINITY
OF AN OFFSHORE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. DUE TO CONFLICTING GUIDANCE AMONG THE
PRECIPITATION TOOLS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS IS FAVORED TO RECEIVE
NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADJACENT LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF
ALASKA AND ALL OF HAWAII (THE LATTER MAY STILL BE INFLUENCED BY LOWELL EARLY IN
WEEK-2), FOR THE REASONS NOTED IN THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION SECTION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5,
PRIMARILY BASED ON INCREASED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MEAN 500-HPA CIRCULATION
PATTERN AND ALSO NOTABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
SEPTEMBER 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240909 - 20150825 - 20240821 - 20250821 - 20120827
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240909 - 20250821 - 20150825 - 20120825 - 19970820
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 03 - 07 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH B A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 05 - 11 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL A B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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