969
FXUS01 KWBC 290725
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
323 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VALID 12Z SAT AUG 29 2026 - 12Z MON AUG 31 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ROUGHLY
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM
WEST TO EAST TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY MORNING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST. ELSEWHERE, WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL HELP PRODUCE RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH A STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,
NARROW CANYONS/GULLIES, AND BURN SCARS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION,
ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING, A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTEND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
EXTREME HEAT KEY MESSAGES AVAILABLE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/KEY_MESSAGES/LATESTKEYMESSAGE_1.PNG
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