685
FXUS06 KWBC 291907
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SAT AUGUST 29 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 04 - 08 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS PREDICT A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE
HIGHER LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY WITH THE MOST DOMINANT FEATURES
BEING ANOMALOUS RIDGES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHEASTERN CANADA. ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS EXTEND FROM THE RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A PAIR OF
TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO BRACKET THIS MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TROUGH IS PREDICTED NEAR
THE BERING STRAIT. THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE WITH TWO
NAMED STORMS (LOWELL AND KARINA) WITH A THIRD FEATURE HAVING A 90 PERCENT
CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
EXPANSIVE RIDGING FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH
(GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MID-LATITUDE RIDGE.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN, DUE TO ANOMALOUS TROUGHING.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND, BEHIND A
TROUGH FORECAST OFF THE COAST. MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ALASKA IS LIKELY TO
BE WARMER THAN NORMAL, TIED TO STRONG RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A WEAK
TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR NORTHWESTERN ALASKA,
NEAR A WEAK TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE BERING STRAIT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT EL NINO.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE
CONUS DUE TO ANOMALOUS TROUGHING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
CHANCE) FOR INCREASED PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND NORTHWEST AND
ADJACENT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, NEAR THE PREDICTED TROUGH AXIS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS COASTAL AREAS THE MID-ATLANTIC
NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, DUE TO PREDICTED FRONTAL ACTIVITY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT. A MODEST TILT TOWARD WETTER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS IS ALSO INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA,
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE. IN
CONTRAST, MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LEAN DRY, TIED TO EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA,
AHEAD OF A TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE BERING SEA. HOWEVER, BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII,
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED TROPICAL ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOISTURE
FROM THE ACTIVE EASTERN PACIFIC MAY ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AS WELL,
SLIGHTLY INCREASING CHANCES OF OVER NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
MODEL AGREEMENT.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 06 - 12 2026
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE OVERALL MID-LEVEL PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES
CONSIDERABLY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE LATITUDES, TIED TO AN INCREASE IN
MODEL UNCERTAINTY. ABOVE NORMAL MEAN HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS, DUE TO ANOMALOUS RIDGING, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA MEAN HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NEW ENGLAND, ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING TROUGHS. ACROSS THE HIGHER
LATITUDES, ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA ASSOCIATED
WITH RIDGING PREDICTED OVER THE ADJACENT GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHERN PACIFIC. A
NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) PATTERN IS FORECAST FARTHER TO THE
EAST, WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS PREDICTED OVER BAFFIN BAY AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS FORECAST OFF THE COAST OF ATLANTIC CANADA. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS FORECAST FOR HAWAII, WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR EMBEDDED TROPICAL ACTIVITY
AFFECTING THE STATE AT VARIOUS POINTS DURING THE PERIOD AS THE TROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC REMAINS ACTIVE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES DUE TO
EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL RIDGING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT
CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
NEAR THE RIDGE CENTER. CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LOW (LESS
THAN 40 PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND, NEAR A TROUGH
PREDICTED OFFSHORE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN
NEVADA, NEAR A WEAKENING TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA UNDERNEATH PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT EL NINO.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO WEEK-2 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS TIED TO A WEAKENING TROUGH. TELECONNECTIONS FROM THIS TROUGH
ARE SUPPORTIVE OF AN EASTWARD EXTENSION OF INCREASED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CONVERSELY, PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, AND
MID-ATLANTIC TILT DRY ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR
PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, CONSISTENT WITH ANALOGS TO THE PREDICTED
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN. MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA IS FAVORED TO RECEIVE ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, AHEAD OF A TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE BERING SEA. A
WEAK TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED UPSTREAM RIDGING. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, TIED TO INCREASED TROPICAL ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE INCREASED TROPICAL ACTIVITY OVER THE PACIFIC ALSO
LEADS TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A PREDICTED PATTERN DE-AMPLIFICATION AND INCREASED MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
SEPTEMBER 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240820 - 20240909 - 20150826 - 20120827 - 19970820
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240909 - 20120825 - 20150825 - 20240821 - 19970820
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 04 - 08 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP N N MAINE A N
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 06 - 12 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N A NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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