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FXUS06 KWBC 301902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN AUGUST 30 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 05 - 09 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS PREDICT A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE
HIGHER LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY WITH THE MOST DOMINANT FEATURES
BEING ANOMALOUS RIDGES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHEASTERN CANADA. ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS EXTEND FROM THE RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A PAIR OF
TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO BRACKET THIS MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A WEAK TROUGH IS PREDICTED NEAR THE BERING
STRAIT. THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE WITH TWO NAMED STORMS
(LOWELL AND KARINA) WITH A THIRD FEATURE HAVING A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
EXPANSIVE RIDGING FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH
(GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MID-LATITUDE RIDGE.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN, DUE TO ANOMALOUS TROUGHING.
REDUCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND, BEHIND A TROUGH FORECAST OFF THE COAST. MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ALASKA IS LIKELY TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL, TIED TO STRONG RIDGING OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA. A WEAK TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED
FOR NORTHERN ALASKA CONSISTENT WITH RAW AND REFORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT EL
NINO.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE
CONUS DUE TO ANOMALOUS TROUGHING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
CHANCE) FOR INCREASED PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND NORTHWEST AND
ADJACENT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, NEAR THE PREDICTED TROUGH AXIS. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY WITH
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE STRONGLY FAVORING BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA.
MOST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FAVORS NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION WITH VERY WEAK
ANOMALIES ACROSS THIS REGION. BELOW NORMAL IS ALSO FAVORED BACK INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH CONTINUING MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. A MODEST
TILT TOWARD WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS IS INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF COAST, ASSOCIATED WITH A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA, AHEAD OF A TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE BERING SEA.
HOWEVER, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF
THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED TROPICAL ACTIVITY OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. MOISTURE FROM THE ACTIVE EASTERN PACIFIC MAY ADVECT INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AS WELL, INCREASING CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
MODEL AGREEMENT.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 07 - 13 2026
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE OVERALL MID-LEVEL PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES
CONSIDERABLY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE LATITUDES, TIED TO AN INCREASE IN
MODEL UNCERTAINTY. ABOVE NORMAL MEAN HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS, DUE TO ANOMALOUS RIDGING, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NEAR
NORMAL 500-HPA MEAN HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NEW
ENGLAND, ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING TROUGHS. ACROSS THE HIGHER LATITUDES, WEAKLY
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA ASSOCIATED WITH
RIDGING PREDICTED OVER THE ADJACENT GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHERN PACIFIC. A
NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) PATTERN IS FORECAST FARTHER TO THE
EAST, WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS PREDICTED OVER BAFFIN BAY AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS FORECAST OFF THE COAST OF ATLANTIC CANADA. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS FORECAST FOR HAWAII, WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR EMBEDDED TROPICAL ACTIVITY
AFFECTING THE STATE AT VARIOUS POINTS DURING THE PERIOD AS THE TROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC REMAINS ACTIVE. A LOT OF THIS UNCERTAINTY MAY BE TIED TO RECURVING
CYCLONES IN THE WEST PACIFIC BASIN DISRUPTING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AS WE MOVE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES DUE TO
EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL RIDGING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
NEAR THE RIDGE CENTER. CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LOWER (LESS
THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND, NEAR A TROUGH PREDICTED
OFFSHORE. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN NEVADA,
NEAR A WEAKENING TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA UNDERNEATH PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT EL NINO.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO WEEK-2 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS TIED TO A WEAKENING TROUGH AND INCREASED TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE
EAST PACIFIC BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. CONVERSELY, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. MUCH OF
MAINLAND ALASKA IS FAVORED TO RECEIVE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, AHEAD
OF A TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE BERING SEA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
ACROSS HAWAII, TIED TO INCREASED TROPICAL ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PACIFIC.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW NORMAL, 1 OUT 5, VERY WEAK
HEIGHT ANOMALIES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY LIMITS CONFIDENCE.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
SEPTEMBER 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240821 - 20240909 - 20120827 - 20150826 - 19970819
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240909 - 20120825 - 20240821 - 19970820 - 20150825
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 05 - 09 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS N B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 07 - 13 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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