396
FXUS06 KWBC 311902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON AUGUST 31 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 06 - 10 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS PREDICT AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND VICINITY WITH THE MOST DOMINANT FEATURES BEING ANOMALOUS RIDGES
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHEASTERN CANADA, AND THE CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS). ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS EXTEND FROM THESE RIDGES OVER MOST OF NORTH
AMERICA. THE EXCEPTION IS A PAIR OF WEAK TROUGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO BRACKET
CONUS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH IS PREDICTED NEAR THE BERING STRAIT. THE TROPICAL CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PACIFIC IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE WITH TWO NAMED STORMS (LOWELL AND KARINA) WITH A
THIRD FEATURE BEING MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
EXPANSIVE RIDGING FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH
(GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MID-LATITUDE RIDGE.
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN, DUE TO ANOMALOUS
TROUGHING. REDUCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND, BEHIND A TROUGH FORECAST OFF THE COAST. MUCH OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ALASKA IS LIKELY TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL, TIED TO STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
INDICATED FOR NORTHERN ALASKA CONSISTENT WITH RAW AND REFORECAST MODEL
GUIDANCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH
THE CURRENT EL NINO.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO ANOMALOUS
TROUGHING AND A SWEEP OF MOISTURE COMING FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE BEING MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A 90% CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT
CHANCE) FOR INCREASED PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA, GREAT BASIN,
WESTERN FOUR CORNERS, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
ANALOG AND TELECONNECTION TOOLS AND UNCALIBRATED FORECAST GUIDANCE. A MODEST
TILT TOWARD WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS IS INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF COAST, ASSOCIATED WITH A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH ONSHORE FLOW NORTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MOST DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII WITH BOTH TROPICAL STORM LOWELL AND
HURRICANE KARINA APPROACHING THE ISLAND CHAIN. MOST TOOLS FAVOR THE STORMS TO
AVOID LANDFALL BUT REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR UP TO DATE
INFORMATION ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS. NEVERTHELESS, THEY
BRING ELEVATED CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF HAWAII DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
MODEL AGREEMENT.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 08 - 14 2026
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE OVERALL MID-LEVEL PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS NORTH AMERICA TIED TO AN INCREASE IN MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
ABOVE NORMAL MEAN HEIGHTS REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS, DUE TO
ANOMALOUS RIDGING, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE ECENS AND CMCE HAVE
SHOWN A CONSISTENT WEAK POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. THIS REDUCES
MEAN TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST RELATIVE TO PRIOR FORECASTS. THESE TOOLS
ALSO INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER BY THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK-2. IN ALASKA, A HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN BRINGS WEAKLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TO THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED
OVER HAWAII, WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR EMBEDDED TROPICAL ACTIVITY AFFECTING
THE STATE AT VARIOUS POINTS DURING THE PERIOD AS THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC
REMAINS ACTIVE. A LOT OF THE WEEK-2 MID-LEVEL HEIGHT UNCERTAINTY MAY BE TIED TO
RECURVING CYCLONES IN THE WEST PACIFIC BASIN DISRUPTING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AS
WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES DUE TO
EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL RIDGING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LOWER (LESS
THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TIED TO THE WAXING AND WANING
OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH FEATURES. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
NEAR A WEAKENING TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA UNDERNEATH PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ARE FAVORED OVER THE MAINLAND AS A RESULT OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND
WEAK TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH TIME. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT EL NINO.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO WEEK-2 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS TIED TO A WEAKENING TROUGH AND INCREASED TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE
EAST PACIFIC BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. CONVERSELY, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. MUCH OF
MAINLAND ALASKA IS FAVORED TO RECEIVE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, AHEAD
OF A TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE BERING SEA DURING WEEK-2. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION REMAINS LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, TIED TO CONTINUED TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACTIVITY DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW NORMAL, 1 OUT OF 5, VERY
WEAK HEIGHT ANOMALIES AS A RESULT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY LIMITS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
SEPTEMBER 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240821 - 20240910 - 19970819 - 20120827 - 20050903
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20120826 - 20240910 - 20240821 - 19970820 - 20050905
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 06 - 10 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 08 - 14 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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