078
FXUS01 KWBC 312014
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
VALID 00Z TUE SEP 01 2026 - 00Z THU SEP 03 2026
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
LATER ON TUESDAY...
...A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA TO
UTAH THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY...
AS THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
TO THE FOUR CORNERS, AND LATE-SUMMER HEAT SPREADS FROM THE CENTRAL
U.S TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S., TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE (TD5) FORMED
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE TAIL END OF A FRONT THAT MOVED
INTO THE EASTERN GULF LAST FRIDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST PASSING SOUTH OF
LOUISIANA BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER
ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SQUALLY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IMPACTING THE
WESTERN LOUISIANA COAST TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
A PORTION OF THESE AREAS AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
UPDATES ON TD5 FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AS A SMALL
SYSTEM SUCH AS TD5 COULD BE PRONE TO QUICKER INTENSITY CHANGES.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. AND INTERACT WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A BROAD
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THIS GENERAL AREA OF THE
FOUR CORNERS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A MODERATE RISK ISSUED FOR
NORTHERN ARIZONA TO CENTRAL THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN COULD LEAD TO A RAPID RISE OF WATER ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND
NARROW CANYONS/GULLIES, WITH BURN SCARS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE
LOCATION. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT APPEARS TO LESSEN AND BECOME MUCH
LESS WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY BUT A MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
THREAT REMAINS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES.
MEANWHILE, A RATHER DEEP LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA CONTINUES TO PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TRIGGERING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A PAIR OF
WARM/STATIONARY FRONTS WILL FOCUS A CORRIDOR OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR MORE LIKELY
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE-DAY HOURS, WITH A SLIGHT RISK
OF FLASH FLOODING FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
TONIGHT NEAR A MEANDERING FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT
IS FORECAST TO REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE, LATE-SUMMER
HEAT REACHING INTO THE LOWER 100S WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE HEAT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL UP INTO
THE 90S FOR THE INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL U.S.
KONG
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
EXTREME HEAT KEY MESSAGES AVAILABLE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/KEY_MESSAGES/LATESTKEYMESSAGE_1.PNG
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