239
FXUS01 KWBC 010800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 AM EDT TUE SEP 01 2026
VALID 12Z TUE SEP 01 2026 - 12Z THU SEP 03 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHER/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
ON TUESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS
OF THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THEREFORE,
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. EDOUARD
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF
COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF COAST ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ALSO ON TUESDAY, A FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE
MOST VULNERABLE.
ON WEDNESDAY, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE SPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM THE
SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
NEXT, A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST COAST ON TUESDAY,
PRODUCING RAIN THAT WILL EXPAND INLAND TO THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LASTLY, HEAT
WILL BUILD OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND EXPAND INTO THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE, HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED OVER THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
EXTREME HEAT KEY MESSAGES AVAILABLE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/KEY_MESSAGES/LATESTKEYMESSAGE_1.PNG
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