006
FXUS01 KWBC 012037
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
435 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2026
VALID 00Z WED SEP 02 2026 - 00Z FRI SEP 04 2026
...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE
LOUISIANA-TEXAS COASTAL BORDER, BRINGING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
NEAR THE COAST AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT FURTHER INLAND ACROSS
EASTERN TEXAS...
...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS SLOWLY PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
NEXT SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE REACHES ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO ON
THURSDAY...
...HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL U.S., DEEP SOUTH, AND PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC;
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
SEPTEMBER BEGINS WITH LATE-SUMMER HEAT CONTINUING TO EXPAND FROM
THE CENTRAL U.S TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S. AS TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD
MAKES LANDFALL NEAR THE LOUISIANA-TEXAS COASTAL BORDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN
TEXAS AND WEAKEN QUICKLY TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST WHERE
EDOUARD MAKES LANDFALL WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT ALONG EDOUARD'S PATH. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEAVY RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS UP TO
9 INCHES FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST INLAND THROUGH
EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS, AND POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES IN FAR
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG THIS CORRIDOR,
ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AND URBAN AREAS. RIVER FLOODING MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE, A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES
TO PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER HAS SET
UP A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC WHERE REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE THREATS WILL PROGRESS VERY
GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY. ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR A MEANDERING FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN-CENTRAL MONTANA
ON WEDNESDAY.
A RATHER DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW FOR LATE SUMMER IS FORECAST
TO PUSH INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BRINGING INCREASINGLY
WIDESPREAD UNSETTLED WEATHER DEEPER INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT, BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN OREGON BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES WITH LOWER
AMOUNTS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE, THE INFLUX OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL THE NEXT SURGE OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FROM MEXICO FURTHER INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BY
THURSDAY. WPC HAS POSTED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY.
IN CONTRAST TO THE COOL WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, LATE-SUMMER HEAT REACHING INTO THE LOWER 100S WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HEAT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
FARTHER EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL UP INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR
THE INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT ADVISORIES
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE EAST-CENTRAL
U.S. TO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH NEW HEAT ADVISORIES POSTED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH 110 DURING THE DAY.
KONG
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
EXTREME HEAT KEY MESSAGES AVAILABLE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/KEY_MESSAGES/LATESTKEYMESSAGE_1.PNG
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