146
FXUS01 KWBC 020744
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
344 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2026
VALID 12Z WED SEP 02 2026 - 12Z FRI SEP 04 2026
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, AND MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD OVER EASTERN TEXAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AND
DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY MORNING. EDOUARD WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING
AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHWEST, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
THURSDAY, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY, PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING
AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
ALSO ON WEDNESDAY, A FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND MOVE OUT OVER THE OCEAN BY FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE
MOST VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC,
SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY FRIDAY MORNING.
NEXT, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES ROUGHLY
WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES.
ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND MID-ATLANTIC
ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY,
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES.
A FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
LASTLY, HEAT WILL BUILD OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE, HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
POSTED OVER THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS AND ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
EXTREME HEAT KEY MESSAGES AVAILABLE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/KEY_MESSAGES/LATESTKEYMESSAGE_1.PNG
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