576
FXUS01 KWBC 021759
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
158 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2026
VALID 00Z THU SEP 03 2026 - 00Z SAT SEP 05 2026
...T.D. EDOUARD WILL BRING FLASH FLOODING AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
RISK OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING RISK OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST, GREAT LAKES, MID-ATLANTIC, AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH, WHILE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST, MID-ATLANTIC BY LATE
WEEK...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS
BY THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SATURATED SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL,
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO A CONTINUATION FOR FLOODING
CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS. A HIGH RISK (LEVEL 4/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN
AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST
VULNERABLE. ON FRIDAY, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT WARM
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY THURSDAY, THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT
MOISTURE NORTHWARD, LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH
THIS BOUNDARY, WHILE WARM MOIST AIR MOVES NORTHWARD. THIS SETUP
WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BRING MOMENTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. FURTHER WEST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL
U.S. WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND EXTEND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES PRODUCING ORGANIZED SHOWERS
THROUGH FRIDAY, WHICH MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOODING OVER SENSITIVE AREAS.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL MAINTAIN DANGEROUS
HEAT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH BETWEEN 95-105 DEGREES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDWEST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST. THE
COMBINATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK, WHICH MAY BRING
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES. PLEASE SEE WPC'S KEY MESSAGES FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
OUDIT
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
EXTREME HEAT KEY MESSAGES AVAILABLE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/KEY_MESSAGES/LATESTKEYMESSAGE_1.PNG
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