368
FXUS06 KWBC 021922
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED SEPTEMBER 02 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 08 - 12 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS PREDICT A COMPLEX 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS). THE TROPICAL EASTERN AND
CENTRAL PACIFIC REMAIN ACTIVE, WITH THREE NAMED STORMS (LOWELL, KARINA, AND
MARIE). MEANWHILE, A TROUGH OR CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST NEAR THE WEST COAST,
WHICH MAY ACT TO ADVECT SOME OF THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE TOWARD THE WESTERN
CONUS. DOWNSTREAM, EXPANSIVE RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A PERSISTENT TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS OR JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTHEAST. AN INCREASED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH
OF ALASKA WITH ANOMALOUS RIDGING FORECAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND THE ADJACENT
NORTHERN PACIFIC WHILE A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH NEAR THE BERING
STRAIT. THIS INCREASED HEIGHT GRADIENT SUPPORTS AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS MUCH
OF ALASKA. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS HAWAII DUE TO ELEVATED
TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, NEAR THE CENTER OF THE PREDICTED ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST,
BEHIND A PERSISTENT TROUGH SITUATED OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN QUARTER
OF THE CONUS, TIED TO PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW. MUCH OF ALASKA LEANS WARM,
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. HAWAII IS LIKELY TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL, DUE
TO THE LARGE RESERVOIR OF ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL
PACIFIC, TIED TO THE CURRENT EL NINO.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST, TIED TO
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC MID-LATITUDE FLOW COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL ADVECTION OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM AN ACTIVE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC. CONFIDENCE FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS HIGHEST (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN, WHERE THE ADVECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
MAY BE THE MOST PRONOUNCED. ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, RELATED TO A PREDICTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS
RIDGE, COUPLED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTS INCREASED CHANCES OF DRIER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS NORTHEASTWARD TO
PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AN ENHANCED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT SUPPORTS INCREASED MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA, LEADING TO ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII DUE TO AN ACTIVE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
TROPICAL PACIFIC.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A PREDICTED COMPLEX 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE TROPICS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 10 - 16 2026
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, AN ACTIVE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC AND
TROUGHING ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO
PERSIST. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROPICS
AND POTENTIAL INTERACTIONS WITH INDIVIDUAL MID-LEVEL FEATURES ALONG THE WEST
COAST. IN GENERAL, CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST,
POTENTIALLY REFLECTING A CUT-OFF FEATURE, AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL
FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH TIME. EXPANSIVE RIDGING
OF VARYING INTENSITY IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS,
RESULTING IN A BROAD AREA OF MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. HOWEVER,
CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER ATLANTIC CANADA FAVORS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. THE ENHANCED HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS ALASKA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH ABOVE NORMAL MEAN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FORECAST FROM
THE ALEUTIANS SOUTHWARD TO THE ADJACENT NORTHERN PACIFIC, WHILE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE MAINLAND. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH ACROSS
HAWAII AS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE,
AND THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF
INDIVIDUAL TROPICAL SYSTEMS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOWER 48 STATES AS 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST AREAS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH (GREATER THAN
70 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST BEHIND A SLOW MOVING TROUGH FORECAST OVER ATLANTIC
CANADA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED ACROSS THE FAR WEST, AS
CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WELL INTO WEEK-2. MODESTLY ELEVATED
PROBABILITIES OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALASKA. INCREASED TROUGHING IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY, REDUCING CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL SSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC.
CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASED ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
SUPPORT A CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST. PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, WHERE
THE ADVECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY BE MOST PRONOUNCED. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH A PREDICTED TRANSITION TO AN ENHANCED PACIFIC FLOW
PATTERN. CONTINUED RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO ELEVATED CHANCES
OF DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
SOUTHEAST, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, THE TENNESSEE AND EASTERN OHIO VALLEYS, PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED TROUGHING AND
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE BERING SEA. AN ACTIVE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
TROPICAL PACIFIC SUPPORTS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TROPICS AND A PREDICTED COMPLEX MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN CONUS.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
SEPTEMBER 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20050903 - 20240911 - 20240822 - 20190916 - 20050828
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20050905 - 20240822 - 20240911 - 20120826 - 20050831
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 08 - 12 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 10 - 16 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page