482
FXUS01 KWBC 030734
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
333 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2026
VALID 12Z THU SEP 03 2026 - 12Z SAT SEP 05 2026
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS ON THURSDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND EXPANDING INTO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, AND MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD, WHICH MOVED INLAND
OVER EASTERN TEXAS, ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY EVENING. EDOUARD WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS ON THURSDAY.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL
STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE. THE
MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL DROP TO A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE
GULF COAST. IN ADDITION, UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
ALSO ON THURSDAY, A FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND MOVE OUT OVER THE OCEAN BY FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
MODERATE RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST /GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION,
A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. LIKEWISE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS /UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
ON FRIDAY, THE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
THE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST,
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE,
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL
STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION INTO
SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, PRODUCING RAIN OVER THE AREA.
ELSEWHERE, A FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE GREAT
BASIN BY SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
REDUCE TO SHOWERS OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY. LASTLY, HEAT WILL
BUILD OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SATURDAY. IN
RESPONSE, HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED OVER THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND OVER PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
EXTREME HEAT KEY MESSAGES AVAILABLE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/KEY_MESSAGES/LATESTKEYMESSAGE_1.PNG
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