795
FXUS01 KWBC 031958
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2026
VALID 00Z FRI SEP 04 2026 - 00Z SUN SEP 06 2026
...A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE REMNANTS OF EDOUARD...
...THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING
LIKELY ALONG A FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC...
...MONSOONAL MOISTURE COULD CAUSE SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IN
PARTS OF ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
SURFACE TROUGHING AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY LEFT OVER FROM EDOUARD IS
CURRENTLY FOCUSING MOISTURE FOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN IN PARTS OF
EASTERN TEXAS. A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM. AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY
SEEN COPIOUS RAIN AMOUNTS FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE AT PARTICULAR
RISK. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO THIS EVENING, WITH A
POSSIBLE MINOR UPTICK LATE NIGHT--BUT OVERALL WEAKER THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS, AS THE SUPPORT FOR HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE. FARTHER EAST, AMPLE MOISTURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE GULF
COAST REGION TO FLORIDA, ALONG WITH SOME SURFACE LOW PRESSURE,
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FARTHER NORTH, AN ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MEANDERS IN
THE MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN SLOWLY SINKS
SOUTHWARD. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH TONIGHT HAVE A THREAT OF TORNADOES, HIGH WINDS,
AND HAIL. IN THE GREAT LAKES TO MID-ATLANTIC, STRONG WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT, AND THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3/5) SHOWN BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR THIS
POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA EMBEDDED
WITHIN LARGER SLIGHT RISKS ENCOMPASSING THESE REGIONS. ON FRIDAY,
THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM THREAT (MOSTLY FOR HIGH WINDS, WITH SOME
HAIL POSSIBLE) IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS
PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN RATES AND IN SENSITIVE PLACES LIKE URBAN
AREAS. BY SATURDAY, THE FRONT SINKING SOUTH WILL LEAD TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND
VICINITY.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN. WPC CONTINUES TO INDICATE SLIGHT RISKS (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY FOR THESE STORMS. URBAN AREAS AND
ALSO DRY WASHES AND BURN SCARS WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO
FLOODING. FARTHER NORTH, A REASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH A NONZERO CHANCE OF FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN
ROCKIES FOR LATE WEEK, BUT WITH LOWER OVERALL RAIN TOTALS.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SEPTEMBER
ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE WIDESPREAD FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH EXTREME HEAT
WARNINGS CENTERED IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, FOR TEMPERATURES
AND HEAT INDICES WELL INTO THE 90S AND 100S. WARM LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL CAUSE ADDED HEAT STRESS TO VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND
INFRASTRUCTURE, WHILE ALSO SETTING WIDESPREAD RECORDS FOR WARM
MINIMUMS. MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK IS WIDESPREAD. SEE WPC'S KEY
MESSAGES FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE HEAT. THE NORTHEAST TO
MID-ATLANTIC SHOULD GRADUALLY SEE SOME HEAT RELIEF AS A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT THE CENTRAL U.S.
WILL REMAIN HOT. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS THE WEST GIVEN THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD.
TATE
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
EXTREME HEAT KEY MESSAGES AVAILABLE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/KEY_MESSAGES/LATESTKEYMESSAGE_1.PNG
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