607
FXUS01 KWBC 040811
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2026
VALID 12Z FRI SEP 04 2026 - 12Z SUN SEP 06 2026
...ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...
...MONSOONAL MOISTURE COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IN
PARTS OF ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...HEAT PERSISTS ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY AS COOLER
AIR EXPANDS FURTHER INTO THE WEST COAST AND THE NORTHEAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL
SUSTAIN A CORRIDOR OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE COOL AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO ADVANCE GRADUALLY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AGAINST THE HEAT
DOME ANCHORED OVER THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL SHIFT THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST.
ACROSS THE SOUTH, AMPLE MOISTURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION TO FLORIDA, WHERE WEAK DISTURBANCES TRAVEL ALONG A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE, WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD
CAUSE INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE, MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS MAINLY
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOST ACTIVE DURING THE LATE-DAY HOURS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WPC MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL STRADDLING THE ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO BORDER FOR
TODAY. URBAN AREAS AND ALSO DRY WASHES AND BURN SCARS WILL BE MOST
VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. FARTHER NORTH, A RELATIVELY DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE NORTHWEST, WHERE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A NONZERO CHANCE OF
CAUSING LOCALLY FLOODING ISSUES BY SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SEPTEMBER
ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE MIDSECTION OF
THE COUNTRY. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE WIDESPREAD FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS CENTERED
IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, FOR TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES
WELL INTO THE 90S AND 100S. WARM LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE ADDED
HEAT STRESS TO VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND INFRASTRUCTURE, WHILE ALSO
SETTING WIDESPREAD RECORDS FOR WARM MINIMUMS. MAJOR TO EXTREME
HEATRISK IS WIDESPREAD. SEE WPC'S KEY MESSAGES FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THE HEAT. THE NORTHEAST TO MID-ATLANTIC SHOULD
GRADUALLY SEE SOME HEAT RELIEF AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTH
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL REMAIN HOT.
MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST
GIVEN THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. IN FACT, BELOW FREEZING MORNING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS FAR
SOUTH AS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
KONG/TATE
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
EXTREME HEAT KEY MESSAGES AVAILABLE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/KEY_MESSAGES/LATESTKEYMESSAGE_1.PNG
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