128
FXUS01 KWBC 162006
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
VALID 00Z THU SEP 17 2026 - 00Z SAT SEP 19 2026
...A MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OVER
SECTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...RECORD-CHALLENGING HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S....
A MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL CIRCULATION BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TOWARD ARIZONA AHEAD OF A LARGE SCALE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. THIS
CIRCULATION WILL LIFT MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE MODERATE RISK AREAS IN CENTRAL ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
WHERE UPWARDS OF 2-3" OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. BY THURSDAY, THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA AND THE FOUR CORNERS AS IT
WEAKENS. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO
LESSEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, MORE HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
TRIGGERED IF THIS CIRCULATION REMAINS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. BY
FRIDAY, THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD BECOME MUCH DIFFUSED BUT WIDELY
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IS STILL A CONCERN ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MEANWHILE, A MEANDERING FRONT WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY
EJECTING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS HEAVY RAIN WILL TRIGGER THE
FORMATION OF A NEW LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AND LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY WHERE WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING
A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
AS WE GET INTO MID-SEPTEMBER, COOLER AIR FROM CANADA IS BEGINNING
TO DIP INTO THE NORTHERN TIER STATES, BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PERSISTENT HEAT DOME REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTH, RESULTING IN
A PRONOUNCED NORTH-SOUTH TEMPERATURE CONTRAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW 70S AND UPPER 60S CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
MEANDERING FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST, COMPARED TO
UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNFORTUNATELY,
THE WESTERN END OF THE FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD MEANS THAT THE
HAZARDOUS HEAT IS HERE TO STAY THIS WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTH. IN
FACT, HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S
WILL CHALLENGE DAILY RECORDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
MEANWHILE, INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAT DOME WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SUNSHINE
STATE, ALTHOUGH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THIS
ACTIVITY.
KONG/ASHERMAN
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page