863
FXUS05 KWBC 171231
PMD90D
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS
EL NIñO CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT, AS REPRESENTED IN CURRENT OCEANIC AND
ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS. EL NIñO IS STRENGTHENING, WITH A GREATER THAN 90
PERCENT CHANCE OF A VERY STRONG EVENT THIS FALL AND WINTER.
THE OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER (OND) 2026 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF ALASKA AS WELL AS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
ROCKIES, NEARLY ALL AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AND THE NORTHCENTRAL
STATES IN-BETWEEN. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT) OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN, AND THE VICINITY OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
THE OND 2026 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK DEPICTS ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND GREAT PLAINS,
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, THE SOUTHEAST, AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THE GREATEST CHANCES (HIGHER THAN 60 PERCENT) FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. A MODEST TILT IN THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS DEPICTED FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. MODEST TILTS TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FAVORED OVER THE ALEUTIANS, INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MAINLAND ALASKA, INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, AND PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
EQUAL CHANCES (EC) ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR EACH CATEGORY
OF SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES.
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS
NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
EL NIñO STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST MONTH, WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST)
ANOMALIES EXCEEDING +3.0°C IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE LATEST
WEEKLY NIñO INDEX VALUE FOR NIñO-3.4 WAS +2.0°C, AND FOR NIñO-3 THE INDEX
VALUE WAS +2.8°C. THE EQUATORIAL SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE INDEX (AVERAGE FROM
180°-100°W) REMAINED STEADY DURING AUGUST, REFLECTING A DEEPER-THAN-AVERAGE
THERMOCLINE. SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WERE SIGNIFICANT, REACHING
+10.0°C AT DEPTH. LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES AND UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY
WIND ANOMALIES EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN TO EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC.
CONVECTION AND RAINFALL WERE ENHANCED FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WERE SUPPRESSED OVER INDONESIA. THE TRADITIONAL AND EQUATORIAL SOUTHERN
OSCILLATION INDICES WERE SIGNIFICANTLY NEGATIVE. COLLECTIVELY, THE COUPLED
OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM REFLECTED A STRENGTHENING EL NIñO.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS
THE CPC OFFICIAL EL NIñO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) OUTLOOK, WHICH
SYNTHESIZES MULTIPLE MODELS FROM NORTH AMERICA AND ABROAD, INDICATES EL NIñO
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR. DURING THE
OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER (OND) 2026 SEASON, THERE IS A 75% CHANCE OF A
HISTORIC EVENT THAT WOULD EXCEED THE STRENGTH OF PREVIOUS EL NIñO EVENTS
DATING BACK TO 1950 (+2.5°C OR MORE FOR A 3-MONTH RONI VALUE). WITH AN EVENT
OF THIS MAGNITUDE, THE CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING IMPACTS CONSISTENT WITH EL NIñO
ARE LARGER, BUT THEY ARE NOT GUARANTEED. IN SUMMARY, EL NIñO IS STRENGTHENING,
WITH A GREATER THAN 90% CHANCE OF A VERY STRONG EVENT DURING THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE FALL AND WINTER 2026-27.
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS
NEWER RONI ENSO COMPOSITES DERIVED FROM THE CURRENT AND FORECAST STATE OF ENSO
WERE STRONGLY UTILIZED DUE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS EL NIñO EVENT. ANALOGS OF
THE "BIG THREE" EL NIñO'S WERE ALSO CONSIDERED IN MAKING THE TEMPERATURE
OUTLOOKS THROUGHOUT THE FALL AND WINTER. DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE
NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME), THE CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM VERSION
2 (CFSV2), AND THE COPERNICUS (C3S) MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEM WERE ALSO USED
FOR THE FIRST SIX LEADS WHEN THEY ARE AVAILABLE, AS WAS THE OBJECTIVE,
HISTORICAL SKILL-WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATION AND CALIBRATION, BRIDGING, AND MERGING
(CBAM) GUIDANCE, THAT COMBINES BOTH DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL FORECAST
INFORMATION. ANALYSIS OF ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SUCH AS EXTRATROPICAL SST
ANOMALIES AND SEA ICE EXTENT WERE CONSIDERED WHERE APPROPRIATE. AT LATER LEADS,
DECADAL TRENDS IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION WERE INCREASINGLY RELIED UPON
IN CREATING THE SEASONAL OUTLOOKS.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - OND 2026 TO OND 2027
TEMPERATURE
THE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FOR THIS FALL AND WINTER RELY HEAVILY ON THE
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A VERY STRONG EL NIñO. IN MOST CASES, THE PRESENCE OF A
VERY STRONG EL NIñO WOULD OVERWHELM CONTRIBUTIONS FROM CLIMATIC MODES OF MID
TO HIGH-LATITUDE VARIABILITY, SUCH AS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) OR NORTH
ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO). THERE ARE TWO FACTORS THAT MAKE THE CURRENT
SITUATION UNIQUE. THE FIRST FACTOR IS THE PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY STRONG,
NEGATIVELY PHASED PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO), WITH THE AUGUST PDO INDEX
VALUE OF -1.11 . THE "BIG THREE" HISTORICAL EL NIñO'S SINCE 1950 INCLUDE THE
WARM EVENTS OF 1982-83, 1997-98, AND 2015-16, ALL OF WHICH OCCURRED WHEN THE
PDO PHASE WAS POSITIVE, LEADING TO CONSTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE. THIS TIME,
HOWEVER, THE PDO PHASE IS NEGATIVE AND MAY DAMPEN THE TYPICAL IMPACTS OF A
STRONG EL NIñO IN CERTAIN AREAS. THE SECOND FACTOR INVOLVES THE LARGE REGION
OF WARMER-THAN-NORMAL SSTS THAT IS TYPICALLY PRESENT IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
DURING STRONG EL NIñOS. THE CURRENT SITUATION SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD
SHIFT IN THESE WARMER SSTS, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER TO
INFLUENCE PORTIONS OF THE U.S. WEST COAST. IN ADDITION, EVEN WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR MORE COLD AIR OUTBREAKS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER
OF THE LOWER 48 STATES, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THIS WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR A 90-DAY SEASON.
WITH THE ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS IN MIND, THE OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER (OND) 2026
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE
WESTERN, NORTHERN, AND EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). THIS IS BASED ON MUCH
OF THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE HYBRID
CBAM OUTPUT. ADJUSTMENTS RENDERED TO THE OND OUTLOOK MADE LAST MONTH INCLUDE AN
EXPANSION OF MODEST PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF
THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TYPICAL EL NIñO COOL SIGNAL
DOESN'T USUALLY SHOW UP IN THIS REGION UNTIL DECEMBER. OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS,
THE 40-50 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FAVORING RELATIVE WARMTH WERE EXTENDED EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, WITH OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER WARMTH ALSO
SUPPORTED BY LONGER-TERM TRENDS. OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTAL REGION,
PROBABILITIES FAVORING WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE TEMPERED A BIT IN
RESPONSE TO POTENTIAL INFLUENCES FROM A NEGATIVE PDO. IN ALASKA, MOST OF THE
MODELS AND TOOLS SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MAINLAND, THE NORTH SLOPE, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES (50-60 PERCENT) FAVORED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A BROAD AREA OF
EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF ABOVE, NEAR, AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS DEPICTED
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, BASED ON WEAK AND/OR CONFLICTING SIGNALS.
FROM LATE FALL TO EARLY SPRING (NOVEMBER-DECEMBER-JANUARY (NDJ 2026-27) TO
FEBRUARY-MARCH-APRIL (FMA 2027), THE OUTLOOKS SHOWCASE A CLASSIC EL NIñO
SIGNATURE FEATURING INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MANY
AREAS WEST OF THE ROCKIES, AND OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE HIGHEST CHANCES (50-60 PERCENT) FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND
ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVER THE SOUTHWEST, THE MODEST TILT
TOWARDS RELATIVE WARMTH GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO EC. FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST, A
REGION OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INTRODUCED DURING NDJ AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE FMA SEASON. THIS REFLECTS COMPETING INFLUENCES BETWEEN THE COOLER
EL NIñO SIGNAL DURING WINTER AND MILDER HISTORICAL TRENDS.
BY MARCH-APRIL-MAY (MAM 2027), THE CURRENT EL NIñO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY, POSSIBLY BECOMING ENSO-NEUTRAL LATER IN THE SPRING. ANOMALOUS
WARMTH IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS TIME, WITH MUCH OF THE
EAST FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF 50-60
PERCENT DEPICTED FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST COAST.
RELATIVE WARMTH IS ALSO FAVORED TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, NORTHERN
ROCKIES, AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FROM APRIL-MAY-JUNE (AMJ 2027) THROUGH THE
REMAINING LEADS, THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED PRIMARILY ON LONG-TERM
HISTORICAL TRENDS AND FEATURE WIDESPREAD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
FOR ALASKA TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MAINLAND, SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND THE NORTH SLOPE FOR THE
FIRST THREE LEADS, OND 2026 THROUGH DJF 2026-27. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF
THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE, THE HYBRID CBAM OUTPUT, AND TRENDS. THE
GREATEST PROBABILITIES ARE INDICATED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND RANGE FROM
50-60 PERCENT. RELATIVELY WARM MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE STATE FOR
THE REMAINING LEADS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EC OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF ALASKA
DURING MJJ, JJA, AND JAS 2027, IN PART DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF SEA ICE AND COOLER
SSTS.
PRECIPITATION
EL NIñO COMPOSITES HIGHLIGHT A ROBUST WET SIGNAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS IN OND, PRIMARILY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEST EXTENSIONS OF THIS WET
SIGNAL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA, NORTHWARD OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA, AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TO INCLUDE THE UPPER MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION RANGE FROM 60-70 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST, WHICH IS WELL SUPPORTED BY A LARGE NUMBER OF MODELS AND TOOLS, AND
IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CURRENT AND PREDICTED STRENGTH OF EL NIñO. TWO
RELATIVELY MODEST SIGNALS FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE DEPICTED OVER THE
INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION, CONSISTENT WITH
HISTORICAL EL NIñO EVENTS AND MANY OF THE OBJECTIVE TOOLS.
FROM NDJ 2026-27 THROUGH FMA 2027, THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE HEAVILY BASED
ON ENSO COMPOSITES, WITH ADJUSTMENTS RENDERED ACCORDING TO DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE WET SIGNAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS, AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND, IS
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION SIGNAL THIS FALL AND WINTER, AND IS ASSOCIATED IN
LARGE PART WITH THE MEAN POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM AND THE MEAN
STORM TRACK. PROBABILITIES FAVORING WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS INCREASE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA, REACHING A MAXIMUM OF 50-60 PERCENT NEAR THE COAST DURING
DJF, JFM, AND FMA. THESE PROBABILITIES MAY BE INCREASED FURTHER IN THE NEXT SET
OF SEASONAL OUTLOOKS, TO BE RELEASED IN MID-LATE OCTOBER, PENDING REASSESSMENT
OF THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS. THE FAVORED AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL OREGON, AND POSSIBLY FARTHER NORTH
GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THIS CURRENT EL NIñO EVENT. OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REACH A MAXIMUM OF 40-50 PERCENT,
INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST COASTS TO A MAXIMUM OF 70-80
PERCENT OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE TWO AREAS OF MODESTLY
FAVORED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST BUT REMAIN RATHER WEAK THROUGH FMA 2027.
DURING MARCH-APRIL-MAY (MAM) 2027, THE EL NINO SIGNAL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY WITH THE DOMINANT AND CONTIGUOUS WET SIGNAL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS FORECAST TO SPLIT INTO THREE SEPARATE, AND LESS WIDESPREAD,
REGIONS: ONE OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST, ANOTHER OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/EASTERN DAKOTAS, AND THE THIRD ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC COASTS. THE TOKEN DRY SIGNAL FAVORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
FALL AND WINTER DISAPPEARS, AND THE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION REGION OVER THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST BEGINS TO EXPAND IN SPATIAL EXTENT FROM MAM TO JJA 2027,
HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY DECADAL TRENDS. IN ADDITION, THE PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES
TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH EL NIñO ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WANE DURING THE
SPRING. FOR THE SUMMER AND EARLY FALL OF 2027, LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION TRENDS
PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE OUTLOOKS.
IN ALASKA, NEWER ENSO COMPOSITES WERE USED FOR THE FALL AND WINTER, FOLLOWED BY
DYNAMICAL MODEL OUTPUT; FOR SUBSEQUENT SEASONS DECADAL PRECIPITATION TRENDS
FORMED THE BASIS OF THE OUTLOOKS. IN OND 2026, SMALL AREAS OF SLIGHTLY FAVORED
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE DEPICTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
AND THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA MAINLAND TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE REGION. IN NDJ, THE
TWO DRY SIGNALS CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE LARGER ONE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR, AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THE LATTER BEING A COMMON OCCURRENCE DURING
WARM EVENTS. BY DJF, COMPOSITES SHOW A WIDESPREAD DRY SIGNAL OVER MOST OF THE
MAINLAND, WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH FMA BUT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY BY MAM 2027.
THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA WET SIGNAL REMAINS THROUGHOUT THESE SEASONS, THOUGH WAXES
AND WANES IN COVERAGE. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FROM AMJ 2027 ONWARD ARE
BASED ON LONGER-TERM PRECIPITATION TRENDS, WITH THE PRIMARY AND MOST DURABLE
SIGNAL BEING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF ALASKA.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1991 AND 2020, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE
FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/TOOLS.HTML
(USE LOWER CASE LETTERS)
INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/OUTLOOK/OUTLOOK.SHTM
L
(USE LOWERCASE LETTERS)
NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR
VALID PERIOD. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM
RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.
THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON OCT 15 2026
1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 20, 2021
FORECAST RELEASE.
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