761
FXUS06 KWBC 191902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SAT SEPTEMBER 19 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 25 - 29 2026
THE 0Z GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN
MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN GREATER DUE
TO RECENT MODEL SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A POSITIVE
500-HPA ANOMALY CENTER OF 150 METER LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE HUDSON
BAY. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS EXTEND FROM THERE OUTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE CONUS.
TROUGHING REMAINS FORECAST NEAR THE EAST COAST, WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL
HEIGHTS INDICATED IN THE MANUAL BLEND. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND INDICATES A
TROUGH AND BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE TROPICAL
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC REMAINS ACTIVE AND MAY INFLUENCE THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS HAWAII, WITH NEAR-TO ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVORED FOR THE PERIOD
AS A WHOLE.
AS A RESULT OF BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING, PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT) ARE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DECREASE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST DUE TO
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC, WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MORE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC, WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE OPERATIONAL AUTOBLEND TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL. A VARIABLE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT PATTERN RESULTS IN NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEING FAVORED
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII DUE TO WIDESPREAD ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS IN
THE TROPICAL EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT EL NINO.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, WITH CHANCES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. FARTHER EAST, UNDERNEATH MORE INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL
RIDGING AND SUPPORTED BY LOW PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE UNCALIBRATED ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, MIDWEST, AND GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM THE BERING SEA TO THE GULF OF ALASKA FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. AN
ACTIVE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST DOMAIN, OFFSET BY DECREASING PREDICTABILITY OF TRANSIENT FEATURES,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 27 - OCT 03, 2026
THE 500-HPA PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO BE STABLE, WITH MANY OF
THE FEATURES DISCUSSED IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD REMAINING IN PLACE DURING WEEK-2.
BROAD RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, AND A +60 METER
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON BAY IN THE
MANUAL BLEND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WHILE THIS FEATURE WEAKENS
WITH TIME, NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS REMAIN FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASED
TROUGHING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC INTO ALASKA, WITH THE 0Z
ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ALL SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OFF THE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN ALASKA DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY OVER ALASKA. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
TIED TO THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE FROM RIDGING. THE UNCALIBRATED ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER, THE WEAKENING OF THE CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW AND A
RELATIVELY WARMER SIGNAL IN THE REFORECAST TOOLS JUSTIFIES FAVORING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD AS WHOLE. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SMALL PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, TIED TO TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER EASTERN MANNLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. ODDS FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS HAWAII GIVEN CONTINUED STRONG
SUPPORT FROM THE REFORECAST TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
CYCLONIC FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND POTENTIAL ADVECTION OF MOISTURE FROM AN
ACTIVE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC, ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BEGIN TO WANE LATER IN
WEEK-2. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED FARTHER TO THE EAST,
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST. ENHANCED CHANCES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAIN FAVORED ALONG THE EAST COAST, WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ADDITIONAL OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE. THE POSITIONING OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INFLUENCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
MORE LIKELY ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE ERF
CONSOLIDATION PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA TIED TO
POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PERSIST ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
DEAMPLIFYING SIGNALS ACROSS THE CONUS AND A TRANSIENT PATTERN UPSTREAM OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
2026-09-19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20230903 - 20050923 - 20050914 - 20171003 - 20200912
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20050923 - 20180923 - 20200913 - 20230903 - 20180830
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 25 - 29 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A B OHIO N B KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 27 - OCT 03, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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